River Flood Warning 44, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1254 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

USING BMX SOUNDING AND APPLYING A TEMP OF 74 AND DEWPOINT OF 68
GIVES NORTH CENTRAL AL A CAPE OF 2000 J/KG AND LI OF -6.
HOWEVER...WIND PROFILE IS MUCH WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY AND FORECAST TO
WEAKEN FURTHER DURING AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...MODELS INDICATE
COLUMN DRYING DURING THE DAY WITH PW VALUES GOING FROM 1.5 AT 12Z
TO ARND 1 00Z FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-20.  UNFORTUNATELY,
FARTHER SOUTH ALL PARAMETERS LOOK SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE WIND PROFILE...WHICH IS ALSO WEAKER.  ALL THIS TO
SAY AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 WILL BE UNDER THE GUN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
HEAVY RAIN ON SLOWER MOVING STORMS...HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND JUST NORTH
OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR...LIKELY ON THE BRIEF
AND WEAK SIDE.

STEFKOVICH

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

QUITE A MESSY SET OF TAF EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE MGM AND TOI AREA LOWERING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS A RESULT. ELSEWHERE...CEILINGS HAVE
LIFTED FROM IFR TO MVFR LEVELS AND COULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS
EVENING. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DONT HAVE A GOOD FEEL FOR SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS...SO JUST WENT TO VC WORDING FOR THE MOMENT.

DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF HEAVY RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN OVER MUCH OF THE TAF
AREA RECENTLY...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. IN SOME AREAS...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS COULD DROP AS LOW AS LIFR. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

10/ARM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF I-20 THROUGH 1 AM FRI.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1115 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-081130-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1115 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS THREAT WILL LAST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ON
SATURDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

75

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1124 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2009

ALZ041>046-048-050-071715-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BULLOCK-ELMORE-LOWNDES-MACON-MONTGOMERY-RUSSELL-
1124 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BULLOCK...
ELMORE...LOWNDES...MACON...MONTGOMERY AND RUSSELL COUNTIES UNTIL 1215
PM CDT...

AT 1123 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF DEATSVILLE
TO MIDWAY...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTH OF
PRATTVILLE TO MIDWAY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  BOB WOODRUFF LAKE.
  WETUMPKA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT.
  SEDGEFIELD.
  THREE NOTCH.
  TYSONVILLE.
  CROSS KEYS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

14

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1205 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009

ALZ044>046-048-050-071745-
BARBOUR-BULLOCK-MACON-MONTGOMERY-RUSSELL-
1205 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BARBOUR...BULLOCK...MACON...
MONTGOMERY AND RUSSELL COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM CDT...

AT 1205 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM COMER TO AUBURN UNIVERSITY
IN MONTGOMERY...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MIDWAY TO 6 MILES EAST OF MONTGOMERY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  MITCHELL.
  MIDWAY.
  CECIL.
  MOUNT MEIGS.
  WAUGH.
  TYSONVILLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

14

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1235 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009

ALZ044>046-048-050-071815-
BARBOUR-BULLOCK-MACON-MONTGOMERY-RUSSELL-
1235 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BARBOUR...BULLOCK...MACON...
MONTGOMERY AND RUSSELL COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

AT 1235 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MONTGOMERY TO COMER...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MONTGOMERY TO 8 MILES EAST OF MIDWAY...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  MIDWAY.
  MONTGOMERY.
  BARACHIAS.
  PIKE ROAD.
  THREE NOTCH.
  LUGO.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

14

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