Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Birmingham, AL

000 
WWUS54 KBMX 182133
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
333 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009

ALC063-065-091-119-182200-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-090218T2200Z/
MARENGO AL-SUMTER AL-HALE AL-GREENE AL-
333 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CST
FOR SOUTHEASTERN GREENE...SOUTHWESTERN HALE...CENTRAL SUMTER AND
NORTHWESTERN MARENGO COUNTIES...

AT 329 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
YORK...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BLUFFPORT AND LILITA BY 340 PM CST...
  DUG HILL BY 345 PM CST...
  TISHABEE BY 350 PM CST...
  BELMONT AND MCDOWELL BY 355 PM CST...
  BIRDINE...FORKLAND AND DEMOPOLIS LOCK AND DAM BY 400 PM CST...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 EXIT NUMBERS 1 THROUGH 17.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR ALABAMA. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA.

LAT...LON 3255 8840 3262 8841 3264 8840 3273 8769
      3240 8767 3245 8841 3254 8842
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 264DEG 40KT 3256 8821

$$

000 
WWUS54 KBMX 182149
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
349 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009

ALC063-065-091-119-182200-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-090218T2200Z/
MARENGO AL-SUMTER AL-HALE AL-GREENE AL-
349 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CST
FOR SOUTHEASTERN GREENE...SOUTHWESTERN HALE...CENTRAL SUMTER AND
NORTHWESTERN MARENGO COUNTIES...

AT 347 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
TISHABEE...OR ABOUT 10 MILES EAST OF LIVINGSTON...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BELMONT...MCDOWELL AND 7 MILES SOUTH OF THORNHILL BY 355 PM CST...
  BIRDINE...FORKLAND...DEMOPOLIS LOCK AND DAM AND DEMOPOLIS BY 400 PM
  CST...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 EXIT NUMBER 17.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR ALABAMA. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA.

LAT...LON 3245 8825 3264 8827 3273 8769 3240 8767
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 264DEG 40KT 3258 8800

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
206 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FOCUS REMAINS ON THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. AIRMASS ACROSS
ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA IS NOW PRIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIS IN
THE -3 TO -5 RANGE AND 1500 TO 2500 JOULES OF CAPE. NEW MODERATE
RISK FROM THE SPC OUTLINES ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. WATCHING A MID
LEVEL JET SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS FEATURE
WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. NO SURPRISES ON THE 18Z SOUNDING. ONLY
MODERATELY STEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LAPSE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BUT SUBSTANTIAL SPEED SHEAR. SHEAR SHOULD BECOME
EVEN MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG SEMI- STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS POINT TO A MINIMAL THREAT OF
TORNADOES...BUT THOSE THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG...ESPECIALLY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT BECOME MORE ISOLATED.  THE
MORE LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER MODE WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE.
STRAIGHT SUPERCELLS ALSO TEND TO ALLOW THE LEFT MOVING SPLITTERS
TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES LONGER. LEFT SPLITTERS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR
LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT WHOLELY SUPPORTIVE OF
HAIL TODAY WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY LEFT MOVERS. CAPE
PROFILES ARE TALL AND SKINNY...GENERALLY NOT A PROFILE SUPPORTIVE
OF THE LARGEST HAIL...BUT STONES TO QUARTER SIZE CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. OF COURSE ANY TIME WE ARE DEALING WITH SUPRCELLS TORNADOES
HAVE TO REMAIN A CONCERN.

DRY AIR WORKING IN ALOFT WILL INITIALLY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
A BROKEN SQUALL LINE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MARK THE
END OF THE OUTBREAK...WITH GUSTY WIND POSING THE MAIN THREAT.

IN OTHER NEWS...HARD TO IGNORE THE LATEST 06 AND 12Z MODEL RUNS.
RELUCTANTLY DECIDED TO RE-INTRODUCE A QUICK ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

12/SIRMON

&&

AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEARING MISSISSIPPI RIVER SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR
BHM-TCL LINE BY 02Z...TO MGM BY 04Z...AND EXIT AREA BY 06Z.  SOME
BREAKS IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AID IN WARMING AND HELP
INCREASE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.  HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS TO INDICATE EXPECTED TIMING OF
MAIN TSTM ACTIVITY...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED AS
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO AREA.  BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS BUT CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT AFTER
06Z.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z BUT DAYTIME MIXING WILL
INCREASE NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED BY 15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     36  49  23  51  31 /  30   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    40  51  27  53  35 /  40   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  38  51  28  57  33 /  30   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  38  54  27  57  35 /  30   0   0   0  10
CALERA      42  52  30  57  34 /  40   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      44  53  29  54  33 /  70   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  44  56  26  57  31 /  70   0   0   0  10
TROY        46  55  26  56  28 /  70   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

07/07/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
715 AM CST WED FEB 18 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-191315-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
715 AM CST WED FEB 18 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...FROM NOON UNTIL
10 PM AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH CENTRAL ALABAMA...ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20...FROM NOON UNTIL 6 PM. AFTER 6 PM...THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL ARE LIKELY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST.

BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY. ADDITIONAL STRONG WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BE NEEDED
ON WEDNESDAY.

JD/02

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
245 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0232 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     FULTONDALE              33.62N 86.80W
02/18/2009                   JEFFERSON          AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED OVER HIGHWAY 31 IN FULTONDALE.

0233 PM     HAIL             CENTER POINT            33.64N 86.68W
02/18/2009  E0.88 INCH       JEFFERSON          AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN CENTER POINT.

&&

DES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
255 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     TARRANT                 33.59N 86.77W
02/18/2009                   JEFFERSON          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED AT PINE HILL ROAD AND HIGHWAY 79.

0245 PM     HAIL             9 NNE GAYLESVILLE       34.39N 85.50W
02/18/2009  E0.88 INCH       CHEROKEE           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN BROOMTOWN.

0245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 N GAYLESVILLE         34.35N 85.56W
02/18/2009                   CHEROKEE           AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 35 IN WATSON.

&&

DES