River Flood Warning 6, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1201 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

.UPDATE...AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED CLOSE TO INTERSTATE 20 HAS NOT MOVED
MUCH OVERNIGHT WITH A SOLID AREA OF RAIN NORTH OF I-20. EVEN THOUGH
RAINFALL HAS BEEN STEADY ALL NIGHT ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA...AMOUNTS
HAVE NOT BEEN TOO EXCESSIVE WITH MAXIMUM RADAR ESTIMATED TOTALS
SINCE 6 PM MONDAY BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.5 INCHES IN A STRIPE FROM
SULLIGENT IN CENTRAL LAMAR COUNTY...EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO JASPER
AND BLOUNTSVILLE. WITH AREAS NORTH OF I-20 EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY THROUGH TODAY...CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
GOOD SHAPE ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PREVIOUS THINKING REGARDING TIMING OR SEVERE
POTENTIAL. I THINK THE PRIMARY MESO-SCALE FEATURE THAT MAY
INFLUENCE AMOUNT OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON IS SURFACE WAVE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE FRONT. LATEST MODELS RUNS SUGGEST
SURFACE LOW MAY BE FORMING SOONER AND FARTHER NORTH...WHICH WOULD
DECREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN WARM SECTOR. MODELS ALSO SHOWING
MAXIMUM QPF STAYING ON COOL SIDE OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITH
MINIMAL CONVECTIVE QPF ALONG BOUNDARY. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE FACT
THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING IS LOCATED A LITTLE TOO FAR UPSTREAM FROM
SURFACE INSTABILITY. 06Z NAM MODEL DOES HOWEVER BRING FORCING CLOSER
TO INSTABILITY AXIS BY 21Z TODAY. ONE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER THAT
IS NOT IN DOUBT IS EXPECTED WIND SHEAR. LOW LEVEL JET OF 55 KNOTS
WILL FORM IN WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS
FOR ROTATING SUPERCELLS. WARM SECTOR TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. THIS WILL PRODUCE CAPES
NEAR 1000 J/KG.

NAM MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLY
THIS EVENING AS VERTICAL FORCING WEAKENS. A SECOND WAVE OF FORCING
THEN DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES SURFACE FRONT BY 06Z. THUS...IT IS
BECOMING INCREASING LIKELY THAT CONVECTIVE LINE COULD INTENSIFY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...THE
FINAL KICK TO CLEAR US OUT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IS A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AND USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...THICKNESS AND GENEROUS
TWEAKING TO GET AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MODEST RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WHICH IS SCHEDULED
TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD BE COOL ENOUGH TO KEEP US AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUES ADVERTISING A LOW COMING OUT OF THE
WESTERN GULF BRINGING US ANOTHER GOOD ROUND OF RAIN...OR SOMETHING
WINTRY...ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS US DRY. ENSEMBLES TEND
TO FAVOR THE ECMWF HERE.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS JUST NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. NORTH OF THE
FRONT...SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER WEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD
EASTWARD BY EARLY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALONG THE FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE.
CURRENT THINKING ON FRONTAL TIMING WILL BE 00Z AT TCL...01Z AT BHM
AND EET...03Z AT ANB...AND 06Z AT MGM AND TOI.  WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS...LOWERED CEILINGS AND
DECREASED VISIBILITIES...WITH LIKELY IFR CONDITIONS...WILL BE
POSSIBLE. BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. BEHIND
THE FRONT...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...WITH
INCREASING CEILINGS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FAIRLY
LOW...AND UPDATES WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

14

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT BEVILL LOCK
AND DAM. THE 2 AM STAGE WAS NEAR 114 FT WITH FLOOD STAGE AT 122
FEET. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR THE RIVER TO RISE TO NEAR 127
FEET BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN BEGIN A SLOW FALL.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TODAY NORTH OF LINE FROM
ALICEVILLE...TO BIRMINGHAM...TO CENTRE.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9PM TONIGHT SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
LIVINGSTON...TO CLANTON...TO LAFAYETTE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
915 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-071230-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
915 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...FROM
THE CITIES OF ALICEVILLE...BIRMINGHAM...TALLADEGA...AND WEDOWEE...
SOUTHWARD.  THE PRIMARY THREAT TIME IS BETWEEN THE HOURS OF NOON AND
10 PM. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH BOW ECHOES. HOWEVER...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ROUGHLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH 6 PM.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...STARTING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE
ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE...AND MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY. MOISTURE AND WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STRONG STORMS...BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY OCCUR IN
THE WARM SECTOR OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHICH
WOULD RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...AND TORNADOES. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN
ALABAMA WILL PRODUCE MINOR ALONG THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER BASIN
LATER TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN
ALABAMA WILL PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER BASIN
THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1121 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

ALZ023-061745-
TUSCALOOSA-
1121 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR TUSCALOOSA COUNTY UNTIL 1145 AM
CST...

AT 1121 AM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAKE LURLEEN STATE PARK...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
NORTHPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  LAKE LURLEEN STATE PARK.
  SAMANTHA.
  WINDHAM SPRINGS.
  BANKHEAD LOCK AND DAM.
  WHITSON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1141 AM CST TUE JAN 06 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1133 AM     FLASH FLOOD      7 NW ATTALLA            34.09N 86.18W
01/06/2009                   ETOWAH             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE CULVERT HAS BEEN WASHED AWAY IN WESTERN ETOWAH
            COUNTY. THE MAIN WATER LINE INTO THE COMMUNITY HAS ALSO
            BEEN WASHED AWAY. THIS WAS NEAR DEE HICKS ROAD AND MAYO
            ROAD JUST NORTH OF US 278.

&&

LINHARES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1215 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

ALZ018>020-061900-
CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-ETOWAH-
1215 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CALHOUN...CHEROKEE AND ETOWAH
COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CST...

AT 1215 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF PIEDMONT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  PIEDMONT.
  ELLISVILLE.
  HOWELLS CROSSROADS.
  WATERHOUSE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1215 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

ALZ020-061900-
CHEROKEE-
1215 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CALHOUN...CHEROKEE AND ETOWAH
COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CST...

AT 1215 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF PIEDMONT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  PIEDMONT.
  ELLISVILLE.
  HOWELLS CROSSROADS.
  WATERHOUSE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1230 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

ALZ015-017-024-061900-
BLOUNT-JEFFERSON-WALKER-
1230 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BLOUNT...JEFFERSON AND WALKER
COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CST...

AT 1230 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR SUMITON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  EMPIRE.
  PARTRIDGE CROSSROADS.
  ARKADELPHIA.
  RICKWOOD CAVERNS.
  HAYDEN.
  MOUNT OLIVE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1241 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

ALZ022-061915-
PICKENS-
1241 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PICKENS COUNTY UNTIL 115 PM CST...

AT 1241 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
ETHELSVILLE TO PICKENSVILLE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES
SOUTH OF MILLPORT TO PICKENSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  PINE GROVE.
  OWENS.
  REFORM.
  LUBBUB.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.