Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
328 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST
CENTRAL ALABAMA...NORTH OF A LINE FROM GADSDEN TO BIRMINGHAM...TO A
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN ALABAMA. AT THIS
TIME...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF A LINE FROM TUSCALOOSA TO
MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EASTWARD AS WELL. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WARMED INTO
THE MID 70S...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. IF ANY STORMS CAN GET GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...A FEW OF
THOSE COULD ALSO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. SEE BHMHWOBMX FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON THE SEVERE THREAT.

14

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...THE
FINAL KICK TO CLEAR US OUT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IS A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AND USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...THICKNESS AND GENEROUS
TWEAKING TO GET AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MODEST RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WHICH IS SCHEDULED
TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD BE COOL ENOUGH TO KEEP US AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUES ADVERTISING A LOW COMING OUT OF THE
WESTERN GULF BRINGING US ANOTHER GOOD ROUND OF RAIN...OR SOMETHING
WINTRY...ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS US DRY. ENSEMBLES TEND
TO FAVOR THE ECMWF HERE.

88

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS JUST NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. NORTH OF THE
FRONT...SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER WEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD
EASTWARD BY EARLY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALONG THE FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE.
CURRENT THINKING ON FRONTAL TIMING WILL BE 00Z AT TCL...01Z AT BHM
AND EET...03Z AT ANB...AND 06Z AT MGM AND TOI.  WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS...LOWERED CEILINGS AND
DECREASED VISIBILITIES...WITH LIKELY IFR CONDITIONS...WILL BE
POSSIBLE. BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. BEHIND
THE FRONT...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...WITH
INCREASING CEILINGS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FAIRLY
LOW...AND UPDATES WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     47  51  33  52  32 / 100  50  10  10   0
ANNISTON    49  54  35  54  33 / 100  50  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  47  52  38  55  36 / 100  40  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  47  54  37  58  35 / 100  30   0   0   0
CALERA      48  53  37  57  36 / 100  40   0   0   0
AUBURN      53  56  38  57  37 / 100  50   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  54  57  36  61  37 / 100  40   0   0   0
TROY        55  59  39  63  34 /  90  30   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TODAY NORTH OF LINE FROM
ALICEVILLE...TO BIRMINGHAM...TO CENTRE.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9PM TONIGHT SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
LIVINGSTON...TO CLANTON...TO LAFAYETTE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
222 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-071230-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
222 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR THROUGH 8 PM. FOR AREAS FURTHER SOUTH...
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SELMA TO HEFLIN...THESE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE
GENERALLY FROM 6 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR. SEVERAL OF INCHES OF
RAIN HAS ALREADY OCCURRED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND FLASH
FLOODING IS LIKELY AS AN ADDITIONAL 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
MAXIMUM WINDS GUSTS WILL APPROACH THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE...
ESPECIALLY ON OPEN WATERWAYS. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS
EVENING. BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS IF TRAVELING IN AN EAST TO WEST
DIRECTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN
ALABAMA WILL PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING...MAINLY ALONG THE TOMBIGBEE
AND BLACK WARRIOR RIVER BASINS THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL
BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

75/LINHARES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
433 PM CST TUE JAN 06 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0351 PM     TORNADO          WEISS LAKE              34.21N 85.63W
01/06/2009                   CHEROKEE           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATERSPOUT ON WEISS LAKE. WATERSPOUT LIFTED ON THE EAST
            SIDE OF THE LAKE. NO REPORTS OF DAMAGE.

&&

KSUMRALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
437 PM CST TUE JAN 06 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0356 PM     TSTM WND DMG     W BRIERFIELD IRONWORKS  33.04N 86.91W
01/06/2009                   BIBB               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON DEER CREEK ROAD AND BULLDOG BEND ROAD.

&&

KSUMRALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
441 PM CST TUE JAN 06 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0403 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SE LYNN                 34.04N 87.55W
01/06/2009                   WINSTON            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BRIDGE WASHED OUT AT COUNTY ROAD 347 SE OF LYNN.

&&

KSUMRALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
448 PM CST TUE JAN 06 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PELHAM                  33.30N 86.79W
01/06/2009                   SHELBY             AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 11 AND COUNTY ROAD 334.

&&

KSUMRALL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
454 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

ALZ025-035-036-041-043-062345-
AUTAUGA-CHILTON-COOSA-ELMORE-SHELBY-
454 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR AUTAUGA...CHILTON...COOSA...ELMORE
AND SHELBY COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CST...

AT 451 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR CLANTON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  LOMAX.
  GAP OF THE MOUNTAIN.
  LAY LAKE DAM.
  DOLLAR.
  MARBLE VALLEY.
  MORIAH.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES...TREE
LIMBS...AND POWERLINES. SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR ALABAMA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

17/KLAWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
504 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

ALZ019-021-027>029-062345-
CALHOUN-CLAY-CLEBURNE-RANDOLPH-TALLADEGA-
504 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CALHOUN...CLAY...CLEBURNE...RANDOLPH
AND TALLADEGA COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CST...

AT 504 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PIEDMONT TO WALDO...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PIEDMONT TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF TALLADEGA...
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  ANNISTON METRO AIRPORT.
  OAK HILL.
  GUNTHERTOWN.
  BORDEN SPRINGS.
  MARS HILLS.
  CHALAFINNEE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR ALABAMA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

10/ARM