River Flood Warning 51, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
645 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE. CURRENTLY WATCHING A
SHORTWAVE SWING THROUGH THE AREA. RAINFALL WITH THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN VERY HEAVY...WITH TOTALS OF 1 TO 5 INCHES
FROM CARROLLTON TO CALERA...TO ALEXANDER CITY. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR...WITH THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY SOUTH OF I-20 THROUGH THE MORNING.

ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN MISSISSIPPI...AS WELL AS ENHANCEMENT ACROSS LOUISIANA
AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI ON WATER VAPOR. THIS WILL WORK INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING AND GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH BODES WELL FOR THE FORECAST...BUT NOT FOR THE
OVERALL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WILL SEE SEVERAL LITTLE SHORTWAVES SLIDE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL SWING
CLOSER TO CENTRAL ALABAMA...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK TO THE WEST.
THAT WILL PLACE OUR HIGHEST POPS IN THE FIRST 3 TO 5 PERIODS...AS WE
REMAIN IN A SOUTHWESTERN FLOW AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. WILL BE EXPANDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OUT THROUGH MIDNIGHT
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

ONCE THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO RETROGRADE...ACTIVITY WILL BECOME A
LITTLE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS WELL AS DIURNAL FOR THE MOST
PART. HOWEVER WE DO REMAIN IN THE SOUTHWESTERN FLOW...SO WHAT RAIN
DOES FALL WILL BE HEAVY AND COULD CONTINUE TO ACCENTUATE THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
NORTH INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT
THIS TO TOTALLY SHUT OFF THE WATERWORKS...BUT WILL DECREASE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

LOOKING AT NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN...AND TAKES THE UPPER TROUGH OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. THIS WOULD CONTINUE TO PROVED RAIN FOR
THE AREA...BUT IF THE LOW GETS KICKED OUT...WE COULD SEE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. UNFORTUNATELY
STILL QUITE A BIT OF TIME BEFORE THEN...AND MODELS COULD CHANGE...SO
WE WILL MONITOR WITH INTEREST.

16

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NMRS SHWRS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE I-20
CORRIDOR...AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU 17Z. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT SITES TCL...BHM...EET...ANB THRU AT LEAST 17Z.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LOW VSBYS DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LIGHTNING. THE OTHER CONCERN THIS MORNING IS LIFR CIGS AT KMGM AND
KTOI. THE CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE AND BECOME MVFR BY 15Z. SHWRS AND
TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN AND NEAR MGM AND TOI AFTER 15Z DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.

THIS PATTERN IS VERY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT BEYOND SIX HOURS AND
FORECAST MAY NOT BE PESSIMISTIC ENOUGH AFTER 17Z.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  70  86  69  87 /  80  60  60  30  50
ANNISTON    84  69  85  68  87 / 100  60  60  30  50
BIRMINGHAM  84  69  85  69  87 /  80  60  60  30  50
TUSCALOOSA  86  71  88  70  88 /  80  60  60  30  50
CALERA      84  70  85  69  87 /  90  60  60  30  50
AUBURN      83  69  85  69  86 /  90  40  50  30  30
MONTGOMERY  86  72  87  72  88 /  90  40  50  30  40
TROY        85  71  86  70  87 /  80  40  50  30  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA UNTIL MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
725 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-220000-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
725 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
IS HIGH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY ALONG WITH A THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL LIKELY
BE NECESSARY TODAY DUE TO FLOODING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
706 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT  32.82N 88.16W
09/21/2009                   SUMTER             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MUDSLIDE ON AL HWY 116 IN GAINESVILLE WITH ROAD
            IMPASSABLE.

&&

GOLDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
707 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GEIGER                  32.87N 88.31W
09/21/2009                   SUMTER             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HOUSE FLOODED ON HWY 17 IN GEIGER.

&&

GOLDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
718 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     FLASH FLOOD      JENA                    33.13N 87.85W
09/21/2009                   GREENE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER INSIDE SEVERAL HOMES IN THE TOWN OF JENA.

&&

GOLDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
721 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MANTUA                  33.05N 87.93W
09/21/2009                   GREENE             AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            COUNTY ROAD 60 FLOODED NEAR MANTUA.

&&

GOLDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
754 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 WSW SIPSEY RIVER      33.24N 87.82W
09/21/2009                   TUSCALOOSA         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER ROMULUS ROAD NEAR JACOBS LANE...ROAD IS BEING
            BARRACADED.

&&

GOLDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
759 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SW COALING            33.11N 87.41W
09/21/2009                   TUSCALOOSA         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIDDEN VALLEY RD CLOSED NEAR STEINER LAKE DUE TO WATER
            OVER ROAD.

&&

GOLDEN