Flash Flood Warning 100, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1237 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANYBODY REMEMBER THE DROUGHT WE WERE IN A COUPLE OF YEARS AGO?  THAT
HAS COME AND GONE AS RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.  THESE RAINS HAVE BEEN CONTINUOUS (FOR THE MOST
PART) SINCE MIDNIGHT IN AREAS LIKE PICKENS...TUSCALOOSA AND GREENE
COUNTIES...WHICH HAS LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
ACROSS ALL OF THESE AREAS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.  SOME AREAS HAVE
RECEIVED RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER RADAR ESTIMATES OF 10+ INCHES...SINCE MIDNIGHT AND
COULD SEE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. CALLS
CONTINUE TO COME IN THIS MORNING ABOUT ROADS BEING WASHED OUT AS
PEOPLE BEGIN TO DRIVE OUT AND ABOUT.  REMEMBER.  IF YOU ARE
CONFRONTED WITH THE CHOICE OF DRIVING THROUGH ANY DEPTH OF WATER IN
A ROADWAY OR TURNING YOUR VEHICLE AROUND, DONT BECOME A STATISTIC.
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...
THING DO NOT LOOK TO CHANGE MUCH AT ALL. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AS PWS ABOVE 2 INCHES...LARGE SCALE SFC CONVERGENCE AND
THESE LITTLE VORT MAXES MOVING OVER THE STATE COMBINE TO MAKE FOR A
VERY WET DAY.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL NEW
MEDIA OUTLET FOR THE LATEST ON THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

27

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WE REMAIN IN A PATTERN WITH VERY LOW PREDICTABILITY BEYOND THE FIRST
COUPLES HOURS...AND AS A RESULT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AFTER THAT.  THE
MAIN AREA OF CONCERN THIS MORNING...AND THROUGH AT LEAST 2100Z
TODAY...WILL REMAIN IN THE EET TO ANB CORRIDOR.  NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FREQUENTLY REDUCE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
TO BELOW 1 MILE AND BELOW 1000 FEET...RESPECTTIVELY.  TCL HAS
EMERGED INTO A BIT OF A CLEAR SPOT...WHICH MAY ALSO SOON REACH BHM.
BUT IF MORE RAIN DEVELOPS...THEN WILL HAVE TO ISSUE UPDATES TO TAKE
FORECASTS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS INTO A MORE PESSEMISTIC DIRECTION.
THE RAIN THUS FAR TODAY HAS STAYED WELL NORTH OF MGM AND TOI. GIVEN
SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE...I JUST WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE BASED FORECAST
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS...AND WILL ALSO UPDATE THEM IF/WHEN NECESSARY.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA UNTIL MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1251 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-221200-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1251 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT..

A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE AREA WITH THE
HIGHEST INITIAL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN A BAND FROM
LAMAR...PICKENS...AND SUMTER COUNTIES...EASTWARD THROUGH TUSCALOOSA
AND METRO BIRMINGHAM...TO CHEROKEE...CLEBURNE...AND RANDOLPH
COUNTIES. THE HIGHEST THREAT MAY EXPAND OR MOVE NORTH OR SOUTH AS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOODING...SEVERAL RIVERS ARE NOW IN
FLOOD...OR ARE FORECAST TO GO INTO FLOOD LATER TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...
CONTINUING A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.

RIVER FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ON SEVERAL CENTRAL ALABAMA
RIVERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.  PLEASE SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD
STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BE
NECESSARY FOR MANY AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO FLOODING.

61

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1057 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1043 AM     FLOOD            2 SE HARRISBURG         32.86N 87.20W
09/21/2009                   BIBB               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING FROM CAHABA RIVER HAS CAUSED HARRISBURG ROAD TO
            BECOME SUBMERGED AND HAS BEEN CLOSED. TIME CORRECTED.

&&

GGOGGINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1058 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1043 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CENTREVILLE             32.97N 87.13W
09/21/2009                   BIBB               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER CROSSING STATE HIGHWAY 219 AT OLD MILL POND CAUSING
            ROADWAY TO BE CLOSED. TIME CORRECTED.

&&

GGOGGINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
137 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     FLASH FLOOD      COLUMBIANA              33.18N 86.60W
09/21/2009                   SHELBY             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MANY STREETS ARE NOW FLOODED IN DOWNTOWN
            COLUMBIANA...INCLUDING THREE INCHES OF WATER FLOWING
            ACROSS N MAIN STREET.

&&

GGOGGINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
142 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W MILLERVILLE         33.19N 85.94W
09/21/2009                   CLAY               AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            SEVERAL ROADS WERE BARRICADED IN SOUTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTY
            NEAR THE TOWN OF MILLERVILLE DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

88

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
153 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0136 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 N CALERA              33.16N 86.75W
09/21/2009                   SHELBY             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SIX TO EIGHT INCHES OF WATER OVER THE ROADWAY ON HIGHWAY
            70 NEAR DARGIN CROSS ROADS IN CALERA.

&&

GGOGGINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
200 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0136 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NW COLUMBIANA           33.18N 86.61W
09/21/2009                   SHELBY             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            COLUMBIANA PD DIRECTING TRAFFIC AT MYER AND MAIN STREET
            DUE TO 1.5 FEET OF WATER OVER THE ROADWAY AT THAT
            LOCATION.

&&

GGOGGINS