River Flood Warning 16, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
314 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

CURRENT BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EDGE NORTH...ALLOWING MUCH
MORE OF THE CWA TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR OUT OF THE COLD FRONT.
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR. WHAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SURFACE BASED AND HAVE THE CAPABILITY
OF ROTATING AND PRODUCING ANY TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
CENTREVILLE TO ALEXANDER CITY. STORMS TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE
WILL LIKELY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

BEGINNING TO SEE A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA...AS NUMEROUS FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED. THIS WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A SURFACE LOW
AND SWING RIGHT UP THE I-20/59 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL SPELL THE
BEGINNING OF THE END FOR THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH.

ONCE THIS STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OUT...THE NEXT THREAT WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE THE DYNAMIC COOLING THAT
WILL BE NEEDED FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. BIG QUESTION
ON THIS SYSTEM NOW WILL BE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW WILL SET UP. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH THE BAND OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-20/59 CORRIDOR FROM MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM
SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO AS ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LESS THAN 2
INCHES WITH THIS SNOW EVENT. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE DONE BY NOON
TO 3 PM ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

BEHIND THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
QUITE A BIT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE ON
MONDAY...WHILE THE UPPER LEVELS REMAIN IN A TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP
THE AREA BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AND SLIDE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT CHANCE AT RAIN WILL BE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXPECT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT
AT SOME POINT OR ANOTHER. HANDLED THE TIMING WITH A TEMPO GROUP AS
THE HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 4
TO 5 HOURS. RAIN WILL ACTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD...WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS FOR TOI AND MGM. THE LINE OF STRONGER STORMS AND RAIN WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAFS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL BE AROUND 500 TO 700 FEET BY 9Z
AND STAY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES. LOOK FOR THE RAIN TO END SOON AFTER
18Z FOR THE NORTH AND 21 TO 23Z FOR THE SOUTH. CEILINGS WILL STAY
AROUND 1500 FEET THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL
GENERALLY DECREASE WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ACTUALLY MOVE
THROUGH A TAF SITE. WINDS WILL STAY UP FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA. WINDS WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY.

NO SNOW YET IN THE FORECAST. IT IS STILL MORE THAN 24 HOURS AWAY.
WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO INCLUDE IN THE 12Z FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     57  36  43  23  48 /  90  40  50   0   0
ANNISTON    61  37  43  27  50 /  90  30  60   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  59  34  43  25  50 /  90  50  60   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  59  34  45  29  52 /  90  60  30   0   0
CALERA      61  36  43  29  52 /  90  50  60   0   0
AUBURN      67  38  43  24  49 /  90  30  60   0   0
MONTGOMERY  66  36  45  26  52 /  90  30  60   0   0
TROY        72  37  45  28  53 /  90  30  50   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY FOR MARION-LAMAR-
FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-
PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB- HILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-ELMORE.

&&

16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
436 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-011200-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
436 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...LASTING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE
THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY 2PM. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT AREAS
NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 AND HIGHWAY 80 WILL HAVE THE BEST
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE LIKELIHOOD
THAT AREAS WILL BE IMPACTED BY MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT
LOCALIZED FLOODING AREAWIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE COLD
FRONT. MANY AREAS RECEIVED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY...AND
ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS WILL PRODUCE FLOODING CONCERNS. THIS
THREAT SHOULD ALSO SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS
THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN. THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE SNOW THROUGH NOON ON SUNDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM ONE HALF OF AN INCH TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCH.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT SOME
ROADWAYS MAY BECOME SLICK ESPECIALLY WEST. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE GONE BY AFTERNOON AS HIGHS WILL REACH THE 40S.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BE
NECESSARY THROUGH SATURDAY AT 2 PM.

75/LINHARES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1049 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 S TUSCALOOSA         33.09N 87.54W
02/27/2009                   TUSCALOOSA         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            6E OF MAXWELL

&&

MBAER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1051 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SAMANTHA                33.42N 87.61W
02/27/2009                   TUSCALOOSA         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON GORGAS RD. CORRECTED FOR TIME OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

MBAER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
146 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 AM     FLASH FLOOD      VERNON                  33.76N 88.11W
02/28/2009                   LAMAR              AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            COUNTY EMA REPORTS UP TO 10 ROADS CLOSED ACROSS THE
            COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

KLAWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
402 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0401 AM     FLASH FLOOD      VERNON                  33.76N 88.11W
02/28/2009                   LAMAR              AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            COUNTY EMA REPORTS 48 ROADS ARE NOW CLOSED COUNTYWIDE

&&

KLAWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
445 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 AM     HAIL             2 S TUSCALOOSA          33.21N 87.54W
02/28/2009  E0.75 INCH       TUSCALOOSA         AL   PUBLIC

            REPORTED NEAR STOKES

&&

KLAWS