River Flood Warning 12, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
530 AM CST WED JAN 7 2009

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED OUT OF ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING THUS
BRINGING AN END TO THE BALMY 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS. FORCING ALOFT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EAST
ALABAMA BUT THIS SHOULD END BY SUNRISE TODAY. A CLOUD FREE ZONE HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST ALABAMA BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS SOME
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS ADVECT QUICKLY INTO AREA FROM MISSISSIPPI. THERE
IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH SECOND WAVE OF CLOUDS FOR A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN BEFORE NOONTIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL HAVE NO
IMPACT ON CURRENT FLOODING ISSUES.

TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE MUCH TODAY FROM CURRENT READINGS DUE TO
COLD AIR ADVECTION. BIG STORY TODAY WILL BE BRISK WESTERLY WINDS.
MOD GUIDANCE SHOWS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY
SUNSET. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS WEST ALABAMA BY MID
MORNING WITH CLEARING SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH OF A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NEARBY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY KEEPING US DRY AND
NEAR SEASONAL ON TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT
OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING MODEST RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
THE NEXT ARRIVING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD BE COOL ENOUGH TO KEEP US AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY...A PATTERN EVOLUTION REALLY BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE
WITH A BULGING WEST COAST RIDGE AND EASTERN U.S. TROUGH
DEVELOPING. SEVERAL RE-ENFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK UNDER THIS SCENARIO. THE GFS REALLY STEPS OUT
ON A LIMB WITH SOME OF THE LOWEST 1000-850 THICKNESSES I'VE EVER
SEEN (THIS FAR SOUTH) BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...GONE IS THE
GULF LOW FROM YESTERDAY'S 00Z GFS RUN WHICH ADDS TO THE
CREDIBILITY OF THE ECMWF. NONETHELESS...LOOK FOR A CHANGE TO BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS SHOULD REACH TCL BY 15Z AND MOVE EAST
OF REMAINING SITES BY 18Z. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP
AND WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS BY 15Z. THE
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 23Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  36  55  29  55 /  30  10  10   0  10
ANNISTON    53  37  57  30  58 /  30  10  10   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  53  41  56  34  59 /  20  10  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  54  41  59  32  61 /  20   0   0   0  10
CALERA      54  39  58  34  60 /  20   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      57  37  60  35  60 /  30   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  56  41  65  35  63 /  20   0   0   0  10
TROY        59  37  66  36  63 /  20   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALL COUNTIES FROM 9 AM UNTIL 6 PM.

&&

58/88/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
551 AM CST WED JAN 7 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-080100-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
551 AM CST WED JAN 7 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY DUE TO WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH.

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE SECTION OF THE
CENTRAL ALABAMA DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINS. CHECK THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR THE MOST RECENT RIVER STAGE AND CREST
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON SOME RIVERS INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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