River Flood Warning 11, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1145 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST
CENTRAL ALABAMA...NORTH OF A LINE FROM GADSDEN TO BIRMINGHAM...TO A
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN ALABAMA. AT THIS
TIME...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF A LINE FROM TUSCALOOSA TO
MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EASTWARD AS WELL. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WARMED INTO
THE MID 70S...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. IF ANY STORMS CAN GET GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...A FEW OF
THOSE COULD ALSO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. SEE BHMHWOBMX FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON THE SEVERE THREAT.

14

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...THE
FINAL KICK TO CLEAR US OUT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IS A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AND USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...THICKNESS AND GENEROUS
TWEAKING TO GET AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MODEST RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WHICH IS SCHEDULED
TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD BE COOL ENOUGH TO KEEP US AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUES ADVERTISING A LOW COMING OUT OF THE
WESTERN GULF BRINGING US ANOTHER GOOD ROUND OF RAIN...OR SOMETHING
WINTRY...ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS US DRY. ENSEMBLES TEND
TO FAVOR THE ECMWF HERE.

88

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MGM AND TOI THROUGH 02Z LIKELY
RESULTING IN NORTHWESTERLY WIND UP TO 30 KT...AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.  BEHIND THE LINE RAINFALL HAS ENDED AT TCL EET AND BMX AND
WILL CONTINUE AT MGM ANB THROUGH AROUND 10Z.  AT TOI...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 08Z WITH LIGHTER RAIN
CONTINUING THROUGH 10 TO 11Z.  WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AT ALL
STIES AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.  CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM 500 TO 2000
FEET OVERNIGHT.  TOMORROW...ONLY LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER AND CEILINGS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE.  WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS BEAT 20 ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.  BY 00Z ALL CEILINGS
SHOULD BE ABOVE 6000 FEET.

12/SIRMON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     47  51  33  52  32 / 100  50  10  10   0
ANNISTON    49  54  35  54  33 / 100  50  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  47  52  38  55  36 / 100  40  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  47  54  37  58  35 / 100  30   0   0   0
CALERA      48  53  37  57  36 / 100  40   0   0   0
AUBURN      53  56  38  57  37 / 100  50   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  54  57  36  61  37 / 100  40   0   0   0
TROY        55  59  39  63  34 /  90  30   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TODAY NORTH OF LINE FROM
ALICEVILLE...TO BIRMINGHAM...TO CENTRE.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9PM TONIGHT SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
LIVINGSTON...TO CLANTON...TO LAFAYETTE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
732 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-080135-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
732 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  WINDS 30 TO 35
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE SECTION OF THE NORTH AS RECENT
HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES AND WATER TO COVER
MANY ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL SOME FLOODING IN COUNTIES
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY.  IN ADDITION...
MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE...MAINLY ALONG THE TOMBIGBEE AND BLACK
WARRIOR RIVER BASINS THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
MAY BE NECESSARY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DUE TO FLOODING.

KSL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
700 PM CST TUE JAN 06 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 PM     FLOOD            VERNON                  33.76N 88.11W
01/06/2009                   LAMAR              AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            38 COUNTY WIDE ROADS AFFECTED BY FLOODING. 10 WASH OUTS.
            UPDATED FROM EARLIER ASSESSMENT.

&&

MBAER

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