Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
631 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2009

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION CHANCES REMAIN THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS/COMPLEXES. EARLY HOURS OF
THE TAFS ARE BLANKETED WITH CB/VCTS REMARKS...WITH TEMPO GROUPS AS
MORE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT OF SE COLORADO AND NE NEW MEXICO.
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DIRECTLY IMPACTS THE TERMINALS...AND AMENDMENTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE TUES MORNING AT DHT/GUY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO ASSESS THAT POSSIBILITY.

TAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2009/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUES CENTER AROUND CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING THE
SHORT TERM.

ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE PANHANDLES DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL REMAIN THE AREA. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO PROVIDE A SOURCE OF
LIFT TO FURTHER SUPPORT CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS OF
DISCUSSION TIME...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES ALONG A LINE FROM ALLISON TO VEGA. CONVECTION HAS ONCE
AGAIN FIRED ALONG THIS OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND IN SE COLORADO
AND SW KANSAS IN POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. ALSO...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN WESTERLY FLOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION. POPS WERE RETAINED THIS EVENING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT
INCREASED INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND BETTER
SOURCE OF MOISTURE. SHORT TERM MODEL PROGS PAINT PWATS IN EXCESS OF
1.50 INCHES ACROSS THE ACROSS THE THESE AREAS. WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BECOME A THREAT.
HOWEVER...WITH UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE ANY MCS OR THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX(ES) MAY END UP TRACKING...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF HOISTING
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE HWO. LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TOMORROW FOR
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES DEPENDING ON HOW CONVECTION/HEAVY RAIN
PANS OUT THIS EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND ANY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
THAT HAPPENS TO DEVELOP. SAME SCENARIO SEEMS LIKELY ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT STILL MEANDERING ABOUT THE PANHANDLES AND MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA...CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE
CONCERNED...MAIN THEME OF THE SHORT TERM WAS TO UNDERCUT MAV
GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSRA.
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
MID 80S ON TUESDAY...WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

SLIGHT END POPS WERE RETAINED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR NOW AS
THE NEXT FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE PANHANDLES. NO POPS WERE
INTRODUCED IN THE FORECAST PAST THURSDAY. MEDIUM TO LONG TERM RUNS
OF THE GFS/EUROPEAN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BEGIN TO MODERATE TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. LATEST GRIDS
REFLECT THIS WITH TEMPS MODERATING BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S BY THE
WEEK/S END. TRENDED TEMPS CLOSER TO THE 12Z MEX NUMBER FOR NOW...BUT
IF THE AREA CONTINUES TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINS...TEMPS MAY NEED
TO BE LOWERED A TAD IN LATER FORECASTS.

TAB

FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE DUE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAINS.

TAB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

10/03

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
603 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2009

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-181100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
603 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES UNTIL 10 PM. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS THAT FORM ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN
ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...WHICH MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT GROUPS MAY BE CALLED UPON FOR
ACTIVATION THROUGH TONIGHT. SPOTTERS AND RAINFALL OBSERVERS ARE
REQUESTED TO RELAY THEIR RAINFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN AMARILLO.

TAB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
626 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             WAKA                    36.28N 101.05W
08/17/2009  E1.75 INCH       OCHILTREE          TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0900189

JC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
630 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2009

OKZ001-TXZ001-180000-
CIMARRON OK-DALLAM TX-
630 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR DALLAM AND CIMARRON
COUNTIES.

AT 528 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF TEXLINE...MOVING EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE SEVERE AND MAY REQUIRE WARNINGS FOR DALLAM AND
CIMARRON COUNTIES AS THE STORMS NEAR THE PANHANDLES.

JOHNSON