Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
612 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION THIS EVENING MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AMARILLO TAF SITE
THAN THE DALHART OR GUYMON TAF SITES. WILL CARRY TEMP GROUP TIL 04Z
MONDAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND ERRATIC WINDS. EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING AND GUSTY BY 15Z MONDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE TORNADO WATCH ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

SJOHNSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUD ARE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...THUS INCREASING THE SEVERE THREAT FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEREFORE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH 02Z.
STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT THINK THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THROUGH 02Z.

TOMORROW WITH THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE FAR EASTERN
PANHANDLES...EXPECT THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO BE CONFINED TO
THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE REGION BRINGING LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT. HOWEVER...EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. THEREFORE UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DRIER PATTERN. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN NEW MEXICO ON ANY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID WEEK COULD
PROPAGATE INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS POINT TO INCLUDE POPS. WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING...A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES OVER 100 DEGREES POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOME PORTIONS OF THE REGION ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.

INTO THE EXTENDED...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF
A PATTERN CHANGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A SHIFT FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT HAS DOMINATED OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO
TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS COULD SIGNAL A RETURN TO A
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER...MODELS AT THIS TIME ARE
UNCERTAIN AS TO THE EXACT ONSET OF THIS PATTERN...IT COULD BE AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY OR AS LATE AS SATURDAY. FOR THAT REASON HAVE NOT
INCLUDED POPS IN THE EXTENDED AS OF YET.

SJOHNSON

FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE INCREASING...AS A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES.

SJOHNSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

14/11

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
428 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-151100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
428 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT FOR THE SOUTHERN
THREE FOURTHS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 11 PM CDT FOR THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
TEXAS AND AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION TODAY AND MONDAY.

SCHNEIDER/COCKRELL

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