Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
623 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL THREE TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z SUNDAY WITH ERRATIC STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ONCE THE
THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE...HOWEVER SOME IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN
10Z AND 15Z SUNDAY. WINDS GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z SUNDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009/

DISCUSSION...
FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. ACROSS THE REGION EASTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP DEW POINT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50 AND 60S
THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL WARM LAYER BETWEEN 700
AND 800 MB...RESULTING IN LARGE VALUES OF CIN. HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...EXPECT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP BETWEEN 21
AND 00Z. WITH THE FRONT REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY...EXPECT THAT THE
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION...MOISTURE ADVECTION TOMORROW MORNING
COULD BE NEGLIGIBLE. THEREFORE...EXPECT AT LEAST A LULL IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR A FEW HOURS TOMORROW MORNING. THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE WARM FRONT TOMORROW. WITH CONTINUED
CONVECTION...THIS WOULD FAVOR THE FRONT REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY.
HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING BACK INTO THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. IF THE FRONT DOES EDGE FURTHER NORTH...INCREASED
MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND THUS INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED AS THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND PACIFIC LOW...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

SJOHNSON

FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
20 PERCENT AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE AS A
WARMING TREND WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 15
PERCENT.

SJOHNSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

14/11

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
504 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-141100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
504 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES UNTIL 1 AM CDT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
SOME OF THE STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE
PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS ALL SECTIONS
OF THE PANHANDLES SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS TODAY.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR
THE FORECAST AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SCHNEIDER

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