Wind Advisory 9, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 120009
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
309 PM AKST SUN JAN 11 2009

AKZ017-022-023-027-120830-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0009.090112T0900Z-090112T2100Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...
SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
309 PM AKST SUN JAN 11 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM
AKST MONDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM
AKST MONDAY. 

A LEADING EDGE OF THE INCOMING FRONT WILL INCREASE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 25 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE PANHANDLE COASTS FROM
YAKUTAT SOUTH TO CRAIG AREAS WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 MPH
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 11 PM AKST TONIGHT OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 120606
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
906 PM AKST SUN JAN 11 2009

AKZ017-022-023-027-121400-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0009.090112T0900Z-090112T2100Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...
SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
906 PM AKST SUN JAN 11 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM
AKST MONDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM
AKST MONDAY. 

THE LEADING EDGE OF AN INCOMING FRONT WILL PRODUCE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE PANHANDLE COASTLINE FROM
YAKUTAT SOUTH TO THE DIXON ENTRANCE WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS TO
40 MPH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKST TONIGHT OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 121355
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
455 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

AKZ018-122100-
/X.NEW.PAJK.WI.Y.0010.090113T0000Z-090113T1200Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
455 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM AKST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
AKST TUESDAY. 

THE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW IN THE GULF THIS MORNING
LIFTS INTO THE YUKON. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON WINDS GUSTS WILL REACH 40 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKST MONDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ017-022-023-027-122100-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-090112T2100Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...
SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
455 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY. 

THE WEATHER FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
GUST TO 40 MPH IN EXPOSED AREAS OVER THE PANHANDLE COASTLINE FROM
YAKUTAT SOUTH TO THE DIXON ENTRANCE. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKST MONDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 121603
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
703 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

AKZ027-121715-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-090112T2100Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
703 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ017-022-023-122100-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-090112T2100Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...
SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER
703 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY. 

THE WEATHER FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
GUST TO 40 MPH IN EXPOSED AREAS OVER THE PANHANDLE COASTLINE FROM
YAKUTAT SOUTH TO THE DIXON ENTRANCE. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKST MONDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ018-122100-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0010.090113T0000Z-090113T1200Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
703 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
3 AM AKST TUESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
3 AM AKST TUESDAY. 

THE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW IN THE GULF THIS MORNING
LIFTS INTO THE YUKON. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON WINDS GUSTS WILL REACH 40 MPH. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND BEGIN TO
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKST MONDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 122051
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1151 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

AKZ017-022-023-122200-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-090112T2100Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...
SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER
1151 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON AKST TODAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON AKST TODAY. 

THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ018-130500-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0010.090113T0000Z-090113T1200Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
1151 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
3 AM AKST TUESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
3 AM AKST TUESDAY. 

THE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW IN THE GULF LIFTS INTO
THE YUKON. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON WINDS GUSTS WILL REACH 40 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 8 PM AKST MONDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
110 PM AKST SAT JAN 10 2009

.SHORT TERM...ARCTIC FRONT NOW JUST S OF A PAJN-PAEL-PAYA LINE.
THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT N TO THAT LINE THIS EVENING...THEN BE N OF
THERE BY LATE TONIGHT. A LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SW GULF AND
WILL MOVE TO THE N-CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN THERE SUN.
ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SE AK TONIGHT...AND
BE E OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK SUN. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE ERN GULF AND SE AK COASTAL AREA LATE SUN.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS OVER THE
NRN AREA. TEMPS ALONG THE PAJN-PAEL CORRIDOR WILL RISE TO NEAR 32
DEGREES BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN SLOWLY ABOVE FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY PTYPE FORECAST FOR THOSE
AREAS. THE THING THAT WILL TILT THE PRECIP TOWARD SNOW IS THE LOW
LEVEL E-NE FLOW WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TOO FAR FROM 32
AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT IN THAT AREA. HAVE GONE WITH ALL SNOW
UNTIL FROPA FOR THOSE AREAS...AND ADJUSTED THE WINTER WX ADVYS
FOR THAT TIMING. ENDED UP ADDING PAEL TO THE ADVY LIST ALSO.

FURTHER N...WITH DEEPER COLD AIR...THE OVERRUNNING WILL BE
STRONGER. THE SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
HEAVIER PRECIP IN THE PAHN AREA...AND HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE
THEM TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVY FOR PAGY
WITH A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE S-SW FLOW AT THE 700 MB LEVEL THERE.
THE PAYA AREA HAS SHALLOWER COLD AIR...BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT SO THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY
REMAIN AS SNOW THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TONIGHT. WAS ON FENCE WHETHER TO
GO WITH WARNING OR ADVY...AND ENDED UP GOING WITH THE ADVY...BUT
WILL GO WITH A HIGH END ONE.

OTHERWISE...PRECIP ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE ALL RAIN...AND THE ADVY
AREAS SHOULD SEE THEIR SNOW MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO RAIN AFTER
THEIR ADVY EXPIRATION TIMES. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE
PAHN AND PAGY AREAS...WHERE THE COLD AIR WILL BE STUBBORN ENOUGH
TO KEEP THEM SNOW...ALBEIT MUCH LIGHTER AFTER 15Z SUN. SHOULD SEE
A MORE SHOWERY SCENARIO MOST AREAS SUN.

WILL GO WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD
RATHER THAN INDICATE ANY LOW TEMP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
INNER CHANNELS AND N GULF COAST AREA.

WINDS WILL BE MOST SIGNIFICANT ALONG THE N GULF COASTAL WATERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WENT WITH GALES FOR MARINE AREA 52 THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...A SW GALE MAY DEVELOP IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS ON THE S SIDE OF THE SFC LOW. OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD PEAK
AT SCA LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...
STRONG EVIDENCE THAT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR. MAJOR UPR LOW OVR
THE BERING SEA WILL BE REPLACED BY NEXT MAJOR UPSTREAM THAT HAS
COLDER AIR AND DIGS TO WELL S OF ADAK. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BUILD THE U.S. WEST COAST RIDGE TO ITS
TRADITIONAL AXIS BY 12Z WED. THIS WILL FORCE MOIST WARMER SW FLOW
ALF OVR SE ALASKA TO BACK TO S BY WED WITH A 588 HPA HIGH CENTER
JUST OFF N CALIF. MODIFIED OR CHANGED CURRENT GRIDS THROUGH WED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ACCEPTANCE OF 12Z HI-RES ECMWF. HPC
PRES GRIDS WERE PREFERRED FOR 12Z WED AND BEYOND DUE TO WARM
ADVECTION ON BACK SIDE OF U.S. WEST COAST RIDGE. ONCE TEMPS WERE
WARMED KEPT MARITIME RANGE THRU PERIOD AND LIKELY POPS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR
          AKZ020-021-025.
400 WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ022.
400 STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ019.
400 WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ018.
400 WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         SMCR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-041>043-051.

RWT / JC