Gale Warning 39, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 111256
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 11 2009 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-120100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAKENING LOW OVER YAKUTAT BAY WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE BY LATE THIS MORNING. A LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MON THEN
WEAKEN BY LATE MON NIGHT. MULTIPLE WEATHER FRONTS WILL DRIFT NE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SE AK THROUGH MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ041-120100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 11 2009 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND BECOMING 35 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW GALE 35 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-120100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 11 2009 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW GALE 35 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-120100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 11 2009 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...S GALE 35 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-120100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 11 2009 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...S GALE 35 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-120100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 11 2009 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT SHIFTING TO THE S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
110 PM AKST SAT JAN 10 2009

.SHORT TERM...ARCTIC FRONT NOW JUST S OF A PAJN-PAEL-PAYA LINE.
THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT N TO THAT LINE THIS EVENING...THEN BE N OF
THERE BY LATE TONIGHT. A LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SW GULF AND
WILL MOVE TO THE N-CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN THERE SUN.
ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SE AK TONIGHT...AND
BE E OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK SUN. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE ERN GULF AND SE AK COASTAL AREA LATE SUN.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS OVER THE
NRN AREA. TEMPS ALONG THE PAJN-PAEL CORRIDOR WILL RISE TO NEAR 32
DEGREES BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN SLOWLY ABOVE FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY PTYPE FORECAST FOR THOSE
AREAS. THE THING THAT WILL TILT THE PRECIP TOWARD SNOW IS THE LOW
LEVEL E-NE FLOW WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TOO FAR FROM 32
AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT IN THAT AREA. HAVE GONE WITH ALL SNOW
UNTIL FROPA FOR THOSE AREAS...AND ADJUSTED THE WINTER WX ADVYS
FOR THAT TIMING. ENDED UP ADDING PAEL TO THE ADVY LIST ALSO.

FURTHER N...WITH DEEPER COLD AIR...THE OVERRUNNING WILL BE
STRONGER. THE SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
HEAVIER PRECIP IN THE PAHN AREA...AND HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE
THEM TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVY FOR PAGY
WITH A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE S-SW FLOW AT THE 700 MB LEVEL THERE.
THE PAYA AREA HAS SHALLOWER COLD AIR...BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT SO THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY
REMAIN AS SNOW THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TONIGHT. WAS ON FENCE WHETHER TO
GO WITH WARNING OR ADVY...AND ENDED UP GOING WITH THE ADVY...BUT
WILL GO WITH A HIGH END ONE.

OTHERWISE...PRECIP ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE ALL RAIN...AND THE ADVY
AREAS SHOULD SEE THEIR SNOW MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO RAIN AFTER
THEIR ADVY EXPIRATION TIMES. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE
PAHN AND PAGY AREAS...WHERE THE COLD AIR WILL BE STUBBORN ENOUGH
TO KEEP THEM SNOW...ALBEIT MUCH LIGHTER AFTER 15Z SUN. SHOULD SEE
A MORE SHOWERY SCENARIO MOST AREAS SUN.

WILL GO WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD
RATHER THAN INDICATE ANY LOW TEMP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
INNER CHANNELS AND N GULF COAST AREA.

WINDS WILL BE MOST SIGNIFICANT ALONG THE N GULF COASTAL WATERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WENT WITH GALES FOR MARINE AREA 52 THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...A SW GALE MAY DEVELOP IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS ON THE S SIDE OF THE SFC LOW. OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD PEAK
AT SCA LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...
STRONG EVIDENCE THAT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR. MAJOR UPR LOW OVR
THE BERING SEA WILL BE REPLACED BY NEXT MAJOR UPSTREAM THAT HAS
COLDER AIR AND DIGS TO WELL S OF ADAK. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BUILD THE U.S. WEST COAST RIDGE TO ITS
TRADITIONAL AXIS BY 12Z WED. THIS WILL FORCE MOIST WARMER SW FLOW
ALF OVR SE ALASKA TO BACK TO S BY WED WITH A 588 HPA HIGH CENTER
JUST OFF N CALIF. MODIFIED OR CHANGED CURRENT GRIDS THROUGH WED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ACCEPTANCE OF 12Z HI-RES ECMWF. HPC
PRES GRIDS WERE PREFERRED FOR 12Z WED AND BEYOND DUE TO WARM
ADVECTION ON BACK SIDE OF U.S. WEST COAST RIDGE. ONCE TEMPS WERE
WARMED KEPT MARITIME RANGE THRU PERIOD AND LIKELY POPS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR
          AKZ020-021-025.
400 WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ022.
400 STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ019.
400 WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ018.
400 WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         SMCR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-041>043-051.

RWT / JC