Wind Advisory 62, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 230553
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
953 PM AKDT TUE SEP 22 2009

AKZ027-028-231300-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0062.090923T2000Z-090924T0200Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
953 PM AKDT TUE SEP 22 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM AKDT
WEDNESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM AKDT
WEDNESDAY. 

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF
OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 45
MPH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND THE
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKDT TUESDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 231236
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
436 AM AKDT WED SEP 23 2009

AKZ027-028-240115-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0062.090923T2000Z-090924T0500Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
436 AM AKDT WED SEP 23 2009

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM AKDT
THIS EVENING. 

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF
OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 
TO 45 MPH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND THE
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE
IN THE DAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKDT TUESDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$
JT

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 231517
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
717 AM AKDT WED SEP 23 2009

AKZ027-028-240000-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0062.090923T1600Z-090924T0500Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
717 AM AKDT WED SEP 23 2009

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKDT THIS EVENING. 

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF
OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 MPH WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 45 MPH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND
AND THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKDT TUESDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 232352
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
352 PM AKDT WED SEP 23 2009

AKZ023-026-240500-
/X.EXA.PAJK.WI.Y.0062.000000T0000Z-090924T0500Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...PETERSBURG...
WRANGELL...KAKE
352 PM AKDT WED SEP 23 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKDT THIS EVENING. 

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
45 MPH OVER KUIU ISLAND...PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN
INNER CHANNELS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 9 PM AKDT TUESDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ027-028-240500-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0062.000000T0000Z-090924T0500Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
352 PM AKDT WED SEP 23 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKDT THIS EVENING. 

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 45 MPH OVER KUIU ISLAND...PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND THE
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE
THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 9 PM AKDT TUESDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 240457
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
857 PM AKDT WED SEP 23 2009

AKZ023-026-028-240600-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0062.000000T0000Z-090924T0500Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...PETERSBURG...
WRANGELL...KAKE...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
857 PM AKDT WED SEP 23 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

THE LOW PRESSURE IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME STRONG WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH GUSTS
TO 35 MPH IN EXPOSED AREAS BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ027-240800-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0062.000000T0000Z-090924T0800Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
857 PM AKDT WED SEP 23 2009

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT. 

THE LOW PRESSURE IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME STRONG WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 40
MPH IN EXPOSED AREAS BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 240714
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1114 PM AKDT WED SEP 23 2009

AKZ027-240815-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0062.000000T0000Z-090924T0800Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
1114 PM AKDT WED SEP 23 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
326 PM AKDT TUE SEP 22 2009

.SHORT TERM...WINDS AND RAIN CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AS REMNANTS OF LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE PANHANDLE. CIGS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TODAY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. TWO DAY QPF TOTALS OVER FOUR INCHES IN PAKT
ALONG WITH MODERATE RAIN THIS MORNING PROMPTED SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORY WITH REPORTS OF FULL DITCHES AND PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS. BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT BEFORE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE EASTER GULF. SATURATED GROUND AND MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH BKN SKIES IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL LEAD TO PATCHY
FOG IN TYPICAL FOG HOLES TONIGHT.

 999MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR 48N 140W TO DEEPEN TO
994MB AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BE JUST WEST OF PKZ
41 BY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS AND POPS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. BOTH 12Z GFS AND 12Z
NAM12 INDICATE 50 TO 60 KTS AT 850 MB OVER ZONES 27 AND 28 BY
NOON TOMORROW. WIND ADVISORIES WITH WINDS GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSTED
FOR THESE ZONES. GALES POSTED FOR PKZ41 AND CLARENCE STRAIT.

 GLOBAL MODELS ALL HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM
POSITION TRACK AND STRENGTH. NAM12 CONTINUITY IN THE INHERITED
GRIDS WAS CONTINUED TODAY WITH 12Z NAM. MODELS SPREAD REMAINS LOW
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE AN UNUSUAL LARGE AMOUNT OF
SPREAD AMONG THE SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY WITH THE GFS BEYOND SUNDAY
TIME FRAME. CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT IS NOTED ON THE POSITION OF
MAJOR FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THE EARLIER PORTIONS OF THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST...THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND REBUILDING
SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A GOOD TRENDING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY THEN STARTS DIVERGING WITH SMALLER SCALE
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS HAD
SHOWN A REASONABLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH TIMING FROM THE PREVIOUS
DAYS. HOWEVER...AS LONG AS THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW UPSTREAM IS
CONSIDERED TO A SOLUTION IN THE MEANTIME...MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH
THE ECMWF AND HPC GUIDANCE ARE MUCH MORE PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

 THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE DURING THE EARLIER PORTIONS OF
THE LONG RANGE IS THE GFS SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRENDS THAN THE
NAM. ALSO FOR LATE THURSDAY...THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN THE
NAM WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK. THEN DURING
THE DAY OF FRIDAY...THE GFS TRACKS THE UPPER LOW A LITTLE MORE
NORTHWARD THAN THE NAM. FOR THE EARLIER PARTS OF THE
FORECAST...THE NAM OUTPUT IS GOOD ENOUGH AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
THUS...PREFER TO GO WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF COMBO BLENDING INTO THE
INHERITED GRIDS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND FRIDAY TIME
FRAME...IT BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE CHALLENGEABLE AS UPSTREAM FLOW
BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE WESTERN GULF TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. WILL LEAN
OVER THE CONSENSUS FROM THE ECMWF AND HPC BLEND AS NEW GRIDS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

 THE SURFACE LOW ENTERING THE SOUTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY MOVE ONSHORE THEN DISSIPATE EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 25 TO 30 KTS WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OUTSIDE WATERS AND OCEAN ENTRANCES. WITH A
RAPID BUILDING OF RIDGE...A SHORT BREAK OF LOWER POPS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THIS WEAK RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EAST AND DISSIPATE BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT LOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE LOW IN THE
WESTERN GULF CONTAINS ABUNDANT TROPICAL ORIGINATED MOISTURE. THIS
WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL AS BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS OVER INLAND COASTAL AREAS. ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL
PATH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A
LITTLE MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF
MOVES TO NORTHEAST BEFORE WEAKENING OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA
THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER POPS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1045 PM AKDT FOR AKZ028.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         AKZ027-028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ033>035-042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ051-052.

&&

CCC/AHN