Gale Warning 252, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 220128 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
528 PM AKDT MON SEP 21 2009 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-221400-
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 21 2009 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A FAST MOVING LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT
AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS TUESDAY
MORNING. 

$$

PKZ041-221400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 21 2009 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-221400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 21 2009 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-221400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
528 PM AKDT MON SEP 21 2009 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE LATE EVENING
BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SWITCHING TO THE SW LATE. SEAS
17 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT LATE. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-221400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 21 2009 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT LATE. SW SWELL IN THE EVENING. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT
SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE
MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-221400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 21 2009 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT LATE. SW SWELL IN THE EVENING. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT
SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 221127
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 22 2009 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-230100-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 22 2009 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A FAST MOVING LOW IS MOVING NE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL REDEVELOP TO THE NE INTO CANADA BY
MIDDAY. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL
FOLLOW ONSHORE THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN
THIS AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...A FAST MOVING LOW WILL MOVE NE INTO
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON  

$$

PKZ041-230100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 22 2009 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-230100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 22 2009 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-230100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 22 2009 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT
SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-230100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 22 2009 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-230100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 22 2009 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT
SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
200 PM AKDT MON SEP 21 2009

.SHORT TERM...994MB LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN JUST SOUTH OF PWS WITH
SECOND FRONTAL BAND ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. TWO
LIGHTNING FLASHES NOTED THIS MORNING EAST OF PAYA WITH FROPA.
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. WINDS GENERALLY
15 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PAGY
WHERE ENHANCED GRADIENT IS SLOW TO DROP.

 FOCUS OF ATTENTION FOCUSED ON 1006MB DEVELOPING LOW MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG POLAR FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 52N AND
139W. PRESSURE FALLING RAPIDLY AT 46184. TRACK OF STORM CENTER
MOVES THE LOW ONSHORE OVER PASI AROUND 03Z TONIGHT WITH FRONT
APPROACHING OUTER COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW RAPIDLY FILLS
AND WEAKENS TONIGHT AFTER LANDFALL AND CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHEAST AS A TROFF BY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
NORTHWARD OVER QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLAND PROVIDING FOR TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND. BOTH 12Z GFS AND 12Z
NAM12 DEPICTING 50 TO 60 KTS AT 850MB LEVEL WITH FAVORABLE
SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN ZONES
23...26...27...28 AND 29. GALES ALSO POSTED FOR MARINE ZONES
41...42 AND FOR SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT AND CLARENCE STRAIT.

 CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT AND LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. 6HR QPF
AMOUNTS RANGE FROM ONE AND A HALF INCHES ALONG THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
IN THE NORTHERNMOST ZONES OVERNIGHT. QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE YUKON TOMORROW AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN ZONES
BRINGING BRIEF REDUCTION OF POPS INTO THE CHANCE AND LIKELY RANGE
 BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WED.

 INHERITED GRIDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS AND 12Z
NAM12. NAM12 INITIALIZED BOTH POSITION AND STRENGTH OF EASTERN
GULF LOW BETTER THAN BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF. ECMWF WAS
THE WEAKEST AND TRACKED THE LOW FURTHEST SOUTH AND WAS NOT USED.
THE GFS WAS VERY GOOD WITH THE LOW TRACK. THE BLEND OF 12Z GFS
AND 12Z NAM12 PROVIDED STRONG TRACK...POSITION AND TRACK.

&&

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE 12Z RUN GFS SHOWING A BIT FASTER
TREND WITH LESS AMPLIFIED THAN OTHER MODELS. THE NAM SHOWS A BIT
MORE AMPLIFIED. IN GENERAL...THE 12Z RUN GFS IS PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH AND THE 00Z RUN ECMWF HAS A SIMILAR TREND
TOWARD A LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH DURING THE EARLIER PORTIONS
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS. THE INITIAL CONDITIONS SHOW THE
12Z NAM AN OUTLIER WHILE COMPARING WITH OTHER MODELS. PREFER TO
BLEND WITH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF INTO THE INHERITED GRIDS
THROUGHOUT THE LONG RANGE PERIODS. THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR SOUTHEAST
ALASKA ALSO TAKES A MEAN POSITION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.

 THIS WILL RESULT THE WEAK TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
SHEARING OUT EASTWARD AND WEAKENING ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A 994 MB LOW
ENTERING THE SOUTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THEN MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE COAST BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN QUICKLY PROGRESSING FARTHER INLAND THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN DISSIPATING EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL GENERATE SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS AND OCEAN ENTRANCES.
A BIT LOWER POPS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS TREND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
ALASKA AND A SHORT BREAK OF RAIN FREE FOR YAKUTAT ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

 THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ONCE AGAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
WEAK RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA
ON THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
NEXT LOW ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THIS
RIDGE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY BEHIND THE DECAYING TROUGH AND GRANT MOST
OF THE LOCAL AREAS LOWER POPS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE NEXT
LOW SYSTEM INCLUDES THE REMAINS OF TYPHOON CHOI-WAN AND GENERATE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL AS BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER
INLAND COASTAL AREAS FROM ELFIN COVE TO CRAIG. THE RIDGE WILL FLAT
DOWN AS THE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF MOVES A LITTLE TO NORTHEAST
BEFORE WEAKENING OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT CONTINUED WET WITH A LITTLE LOWER
POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT FOR AKZ023-026-027.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AKDT TUESDAY FOR AKZ028.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT
         FOR AKZ029.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ033-036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-031-032-034-035-043-051-052.

&&

CCC/AHN