Storm Warning 9, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 141230
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2009 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-150100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT. A WEAK
FRONTAL BAND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY.

$$

PKZ041-150100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2009 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-150100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2009 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.
RAIN LATE. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-150100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2009 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-150100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2009 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-150100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2009 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1228 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2009

.SHORT TERM... TWO HUGE FEATURES DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR SE
ALASKA 1)MAJOR UPR LOW CENTERED NEAR 48N 170W AND 2)THE U.S. WEST
COAST RIDGE WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 590 HPA HIGH CENTER JUST
OFF KSFO. A MONDO JET AT 250 MB IS CONTINUOUS FROM THE MIDDLE
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN JAPAN TO AN EXIT NEAR 30N 150W. IT IS NO
SURPRISE THAT THE PLANETARY LOW IS IN THE UPR LEFT QUAD OF THIS
JET OVR A 964 MB STORM. ALL THIS MEANS IS HIGH HEIGHTS FOR WARM
TEMPS OVR US IN THE UPR RIDGE BUT ENOUGH FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TO GET US WET AT TIMES. NO WARNINGS OUT NOW BUT GOT ALL
THE IMPACTS OF WATER ON SNOWPACK COVERED IN A WELL WRITTEN SPS
FROM YESTERDAY. MOIST CONDITIONS OVR SNOW GOT US THINKING ABOUT
FOG TONIGHT AFTER THE RAIN FROM THE WARM FRONT. BY TRANSITION
TIME THU AFTERNOON SFC RIDGE AXIS OVR INSIDE WATERS TO YAKUTAT
WITH A HECK OF A LOW LEVEL FETCH AIMED AT THE EASTERN GULF COAST
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES AND SHOULD BE A MONDO SWELL. WAS ABLE
TO ACCEPT THE AK-GFS-40 TODAY AND CONFIDENCE HIGH IN THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST SET.

.LONG TERM...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG RANGE PACKAGE.
GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,

LARGE-SCALE BLOCKING PATN OVR HAS SET UP WITH 500 MB CENTRAL
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST FM THE STATE OF CA TO ALG THE
PNHDL.  LOWS TO EAST AND WEST DO NOT QUITE FORM THE CLASSIC
OMEGA SHAPE, BUT THIS PATN WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE.  THE RIDGE
WILL TAKE FOUR DAYS TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN BORDER OF B.C.,
BUT DURING THIS DRIFT EASTWARD WILL CHANGE THE PANHANDLE FROM
A CLOUDY WITH LOW QPF OR CHC POPS TO PRECIP LIKELY WITH RAIN
AT LEAST INCLUDED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST DOMAIN.

THE POLAR FRONT ZONE IS MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED INTO THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN GULF THRU AT LEAST THU, WITH THE WAVES ON THIS
FRONTAL ZONE GENERALLY TRACKING NNW.  BY 00Z SAT THE WAVES
ON THE POLAR FRONT WILL BE TRACKING N TO THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA.

MODELS: FRONTAL WAVE TIMING SOLUTIONS FALL OUT OF SYNC AFTER
WED NIGHT, BUT ON THE LARGER SCALE THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
HAVE A GOOD CONSENSUS FOR SATURDAY ONWARD AS PER THE HPC
DISCUSSION FOR AK.  THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE
IS GOOD THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 12 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ017-022.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-041-042.

JCC/JBT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
135 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2009

AKZ017>029-131800-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-JUNEAU
BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-INNER CHANNELS FROM
KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-SOUTHERN INNER
CHANNELS-MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...SKAGWAY...HAINES
...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...PORT
ALEXANDER...ANGOON...JUNEAU...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...
CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA...HYDER
100 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...CONTINUED WARM WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA
THIS WEEK...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF RAIN WILL PERSIST THIS
WEEK ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. WATER LEVELS ARE HIGH FOR LOW LYING
ROADS...PARKING LOTS...DRAINS...DITCHES...AND SMALL STREAMS.
WATER MAY INTRUDE BASEMENTS...GARAGES AND CRAWL SPACES.

THE WEIGHT OF THE EXISTING DEEP SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE INCREASING
THIS WEEK MAKING FOR HEAVIER LOADS ON ROOFS...GUTTERS...SHEDS
...BOATS...BOAT SHELTERS...AND PIERS. ON TUESDAY MORNING...THE
WATER EQUIVALENT OF THE SNOWPACK AT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICES WAS 6.2 INCHES FOR JUNEAU AND 6.1 INCHES FOR YAKUTAT.

PROPERTY OWNERS SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT AGAINST RISING
WATER LEVELS AND HEAVIER SNOW LOADS. BEWARE OF HEAVY SNOW FALLING
OR SLIDING OFF OF ROOFS.

MONDAY WAS THE WETTEST DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. LESSER RAINFALL
RATES ARE OCCURRING TUESDAY DUE TO A WARM FRONT MOVING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH OVER THE PANHANDLE. SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG HIGHER
ELEVATIONS BUT FREEZING LEVELS ARE RISING UP TO 4000 FEET INLAND
AND UP TO 7000 FEET ALONG THE OUTER COAST.

BECAUSE THE WEATHER FRONTS ARE COMING FROM THE TROPICS
...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE ALL WEEK WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. NIGHT TIME
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO NEAR FREEZING ESPECIALLY FROM
JUNEAU NORTHWARD CAUSING WET SURFACES TO TURN ICY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER NEWS AND WEATHER
SOURCES FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

JC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
225 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2009

AKZ017>029-142300-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-JUNEAU
BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-INNER CHANNELS FROM
KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-SOUTHERN INNER
CHANNELS-MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...SKAGWAY...HAINES
...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...PORT
ALEXANDER...ANGOON...JUNEAU...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...
CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA...HYDER
100 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...CONTINUED WARM WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA
THIS WEEK...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF RAIN WILL PERSIST THIS
WEEK ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. WATER LEVELS ARE HIGH FOR LOW LYING
ROADS...PARKING LOTS...DRAINS...DITCHES...AND SMALL STREAMS.
WATER MAY INTRUDE BASEMENTS...GARAGES AND CRAWL SPACES.

THE WEIGHT OF THE EXISTING DEEP SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE INCREASING
THIS WEEK MAKING FOR HEAVIER LOADS ON
ROOFS...GUTTERS...SHEDS...BOATS...BOAT SHELTERS...AND PIERS. ON
TUESDAY MORNING...THE WATER EQUIVALENT OF THE SNOWPACK AT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES WAS 6.2 INCHES FOR JUNEAU AND
6.1 INCHES FOR YAKUTAT.

PROPERTY OWNERS SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT AGAINST RISING
WATER LEVELS AND HEAVIER SNOW LOADS. BEWARE OF HEAVY SNOW FALLING
OR SLIDING OFF OF ROOFS.

MONDAY WAS THE WETTEST DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. LESSER RAINFALL
RATES ARE OCCURRING TUESDAY DUE TO A WARM FRONT MOVING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH OVER THE PANHANDLE. SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG HIGHER
ELEVATIONS BUT FREEZING LEVELS ARE RISING UP TO 4000 FEET INLAND
AND UP TO 7000 FEET ALONG THE OUTER COAST.

BECAUSE THE WEATHER FRONTS ARE COMING FROM THE TROPICS
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE ALL WEEK WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. NIGHT TIME
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO NEAR FREEZING ESPECIALLY FROM
JUNEAU NORTHWARD CAUSING WET SURFACES TO TURN ICY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER NEWS AND WEATHER
SOURCES FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

JC