Storm Warning 41, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 050501 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
800 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-051400-
400 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 950 MB STORM FORCE LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL TRACK INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF AND FURTHER INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY.  

$$

PKZ041-051400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
800 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT
BUILDING TO 23 FT LATE. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT BUILDING TO 28 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 35 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 36 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 34 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 25 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-051400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
800 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT
BUILDING TO 23 FT LATE. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT BUILDING TO 27 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 33 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 34 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 32 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 24 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-051400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
800 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009 

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT OVERNIGHT.
SEAS 19 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 50 KT IN THE MORNING. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF CROSS
SOUND. SEAS 22 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 29 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 27 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 21 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-051400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
800 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-051400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
800 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009 

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT SUBSIDING TO 19 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 051251
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2009 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-060100-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2009 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 949 MB STORM FORCE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND INTENSIFY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN IN THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-060100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2009 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT LATE. SEAS 31 FT
BUILDING TO 34 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 36 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 35 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 26 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-060100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2009 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 29 FT BUILDING TO
32 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 34 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 33 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-060100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2009 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
23 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 25 FT BUILDING TO
28 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 30 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 29 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-060100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2009 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 22 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-060100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2009 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
24 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN LATE. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
227 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

.SHORT TERM...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH A STORM FORCE LOW IN
THE WESTERN GULF THAT WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AS IT
TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. WIND ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR ZONES
22...26 AND 29. HIGH WIND WARNINGS NOW IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER
COAST FROM CAPE EDGECUMBE SOUTH AS WELL AS ZONE 28. ALSO HAVE
COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH STORM WINDS...STORM
SURGE...AND A SWELL TRAINS THAT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH TIME. COASTAL MARINE ZONES AS WELL AS CLARENCE STRAIGHT NOW
INCLUDE STORM WARNINGS FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. GALES
ELSEWHERE. SEE VARIOUS WARNING AND ADVISORY STATEMENTS AS WELL AS
THE ROUTINE FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM FORECAST DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND MOST EMPHASIS WAS PLACED ON THE FORECAST NEAR HAND OFF
WITH SHORT TERM AS THE STORM FORCE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE GULF WILL BE
GRADUALLY FILLING AND WEAKENING THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. BLENDED INHERITED GRIDS TOWARD A
12Z NAM/ECMWF BLEND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS BOTH THESE MODELS
GAVE THE BEST REPRESENTATION OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND DISSIPATES THE
STORM FORCE LOW OVER THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS RATHER THAN IN THE
NORTHERN GULF. DAY 3 ONWARD BLEND TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF AND HPC SOLUTION
WHICH WAS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING A GALE FORCE LOW
NORTHWARD ALONG THE OUTER COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHICH HAS
RECENT MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BOTH IN THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
AS WELL AS THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE.

AFTER HAND OFF WITH SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NEAR ADVY WIND
GUSTS ALONG THE OUTER COAST AS ANOTHER GALE FORCE FRONTAL BAND
WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE NEXT SET OF MODEL RUNS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIND ADVY GUSTS
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LOCALLY BREEZY THROUGH SATURDAY ESPECIALLY NEAR EAST- WEST
ORIENTED CHANNELS. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
REMAINING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL
JET SUPPORT. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE 12Z MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER
GALE FORCE LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND THERE HAS
BEEN MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SO THE GALE
FORCE LOW SOLUTION DOES HAVE CREDIBILITY IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN.
AFTER NEXT WEDNESDAY MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON WHERE
A DEVELOPING ARCTIC AIRMASS IN SIBERIA WILL MOVE. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LONG RANGE MODELS TO SEE IF THIS ARCTIC
AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE PANHANDLE LATE NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE POSITION OF THE GALE FORCE LOW NEAR THE
OUTER COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY. WINDY AND
RAINY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE RETREATING INTO THE YUKON.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ022-026-029.
...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ023-027-028.
...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ023-027-028.
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ023-027.

MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036-043-052.
...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-032>035-041-042-051.
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ031.
...MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR PKZ036.

&&

FRITSCH/PSS