High Wind Warning 7, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 050746
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1046 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

AKZ023-027-028-051600-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-091106T0300Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...CRAIG...
KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
1046 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THURSDAY...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THURSDAY. 

A VERY POWERFUL STORM FORCE LOW WILL ENTER THE CENTRAL GULF
TONIGHT. MULTIPLE BANDS OF VERY STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF LESS INTENSE WINDS IN BETWEEN.
WIND GUSTS TO 63 MPH HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED TONIGHT AT THE
AWOS STATION AT THE SEAPLANE BASE IN HYDABURG. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BAND ARRIVES
OVER THE OUTER COAST. STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH
ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN
AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

TAKE THE TIME TO SECURE TRASH CANS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...STAY ALERT FOR FLYING DEBRIS AND
DOORS SLAMMING SHUT.

BE SURE TO PROTECT BOATS AND AIRCRAFT.

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 7 AM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ022-026-029-051600-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-091106T0300Z/
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...PETERSBURG...
WRANGELL...KAKE...HYDER
1046 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THURSDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THURSDAY. 

A VERY POWERFUL STORM FORCE LOW WILL ENTER THE CENTRAL GULF
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO GENERATE MULTIPLE BANDS OF STRONG WINDS.
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY HOWEVER
STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MID MORNING
HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN
AROUND.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 7 AM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 051403
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
503 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2009

AKZ023-027-028-052200-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-091106T0300Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...CRAIG...
KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
503 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2009

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS
EVENING. 

A VERY POWERFUL STORM FORCE LOW HAS ENTERED THE CENTRAL GULF OF
ALASKA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS.
WIND GUSTS TO 63 MPH HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED OVERNIGHT AT THE
AWOS STATION AT THE SEAPLANE BASE IN HYDABURG. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE STRONG THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE GULF. STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN
AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

TAKE THE TIME TO SECURE TRASH CANS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...STAY ALERT FOR FLYING DEBRIS AND
DOORS SLAMMING SHUT.

BE SURE TO PROTECT BOATS AND AIRCRAFT.

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 1 PM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ022-052200-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-091106T1200Z/
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN
503 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2009

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST FRIDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST FRIDAY. 

A VERY POWERFUL STORM FORCE LOW HAS ENTERED THE CENTRAL GULF OF
ALASKA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE MULTIPLE BANDS OF
STRONG WINDS. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY HOWEVER STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN
AROUND.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 1 PM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ026-029-052200-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-091106T0300Z/
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...HYDER
503 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING. 

A VERY POWERFUL STORM FORCE LOW HAS ENTERED THE CENTRAL GULF OF
ALASKA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE MULTIPLE BANDS OF
STRONG WINDS. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY HOWEVER STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN
AROUND.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 1 AM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 051625 CCA
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
517 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2009

AKZ023-027-028-052230-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-091106T0300Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...CRAIG...
KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
517 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2009

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS
EVENING. 

A VERY POWERFUL STORM FORCE LOW HAS ENTERED THE CENTRAL GULF OF
ALASKA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS.
WIND GUSTS TO 63 MPH HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED OVERNIGHT AT THE
AWOS STATION AT THE SEAPLANE BASE IN HYDABURG. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE STRONG THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE GULF. STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN
AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

TAKE THE TIME TO SECURE TRASH CANS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...STAY ALERT FOR FLYING DEBRIS AND
DOORS SLAMMING SHUT.

BE SURE TO PROTECT BOATS AND AIRCRAFT.

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 1 PM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ022-052230-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-091106T1200Z/
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN
517 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2009

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST FRIDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST FRIDAY. 

A VERY POWERFUL STORM FORCE LOW HAS ENTERED THE CENTRAL GULF OF
ALASKA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE MULTIPLE BANDS OF
STRONG WINDS. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY HOWEVER STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN
AROUND.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 1 PM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ026-029-052230-
/X.COR.PAJK.WI.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-091106T0300Z/
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...HYDER
517 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING. 

A VERY POWERFUL STORM FORCE LOW HAS ENTERED THE CENTRAL GULF OF
ALASKA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE MULTIPLE BANDS OF
STRONG WINDS. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY HOWEVER STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN
AROUND.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 1 PM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 051934
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1034 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2009

AKZ023-027-060315-
/X.CAN.PAJK.HW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-091106T0300Z/
/X.EXB.PAJK.WI.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-091106T1400Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...CRAIG...
KLAWOCK
1034 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST FRIDAY...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST FRIDAY. THE HIGH
WIND WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE OUTER COAST
WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BAND MOVES ONSHORE THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN
AROUND.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ028-060315-
/X.CAN.PAJK.HW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-091106T0300Z/
/X.EXB.PAJK.WI.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-091106T0900Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
1034 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT. THE
HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SEVERAL MORE BANDS
OF STRONG WINDS MOVE ONSHORE WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN
AROUND.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ022-060315-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-091106T1400Z/
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN
1034 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2009

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST FRIDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST FRIDAY. 

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE OUTER COAST
WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BAND MOVES ONSHORE THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN
AROUND.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ026-029-060300-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0079.000000T0000Z-091106T0300Z/
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...HYDER
1034 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING. 

A VERY POWERFUL STORM FORCE LOW HAS ENTERED THE CENTRAL GULF OF
ALASKA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE MULTIPLE BANDS OF
STRONG WINDS. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN
AROUND.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

PSS

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
227 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

.SHORT TERM...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH A STORM FORCE LOW IN
THE WESTERN GULF THAT WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AS IT
TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. WIND ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR ZONES
22...26 AND 29. HIGH WIND WARNINGS NOW IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER
COAST FROM CAPE EDGECUMBE SOUTH AS WELL AS ZONE 28. ALSO HAVE
COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH STORM WINDS...STORM
SURGE...AND A SWELL TRAINS THAT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH TIME. COASTAL MARINE ZONES AS WELL AS CLARENCE STRAIGHT NOW
INCLUDE STORM WARNINGS FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. GALES
ELSEWHERE. SEE VARIOUS WARNING AND ADVISORY STATEMENTS AS WELL AS
THE ROUTINE FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM FORECAST DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND MOST EMPHASIS WAS PLACED ON THE FORECAST NEAR HAND OFF
WITH SHORT TERM AS THE STORM FORCE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE GULF WILL BE
GRADUALLY FILLING AND WEAKENING THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. BLENDED INHERITED GRIDS TOWARD A
12Z NAM/ECMWF BLEND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS BOTH THESE MODELS
GAVE THE BEST REPRESENTATION OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND DISSIPATES THE
STORM FORCE LOW OVER THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS RATHER THAN IN THE
NORTHERN GULF. DAY 3 ONWARD BLEND TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF AND HPC SOLUTION
WHICH WAS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING A GALE FORCE LOW
NORTHWARD ALONG THE OUTER COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHICH HAS
RECENT MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BOTH IN THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
AS WELL AS THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE.

AFTER HAND OFF WITH SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NEAR ADVY WIND
GUSTS ALONG THE OUTER COAST AS ANOTHER GALE FORCE FRONTAL BAND
WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE NEXT SET OF MODEL RUNS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIND ADVY GUSTS
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LOCALLY BREEZY THROUGH SATURDAY ESPECIALLY NEAR EAST- WEST
ORIENTED CHANNELS. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
REMAINING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL
JET SUPPORT. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE 12Z MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER
GALE FORCE LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND THERE HAS
BEEN MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SO THE GALE
FORCE LOW SOLUTION DOES HAVE CREDIBILITY IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN.
AFTER NEXT WEDNESDAY MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON WHERE
A DEVELOPING ARCTIC AIRMASS IN SIBERIA WILL MOVE. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LONG RANGE MODELS TO SEE IF THIS ARCTIC
AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE PANHANDLE LATE NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE POSITION OF THE GALE FORCE LOW NEAR THE
OUTER COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY. WINDY AND
RAINY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE RETREATING INTO THE YUKON.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ022-026-029.
...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ023-027-028.
...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ023-027-028.
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ023-027.

MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036-043-052.
...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-032>035-041-042-051.
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ031.
...MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR PKZ036.

&&

FRITSCH/PSS