Storm Warning 38, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 231238
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST MON FEB 23 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-240300-
400 AM AKST MON FEB 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1001 MB LOW NEAR 50N 171E WEAKENS TO 1005 MB NEAR 65N 173W AND THEN
DISSIPATES. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW INTENSIFIES TO 992 MB TUE MORNING AS
IT MOVES TO 51N 176E. THIS LOW THEN INTENSIFIES TO 977 MB TUE NIGHT
NEAR 59N 173W.
$$

PKZ411-240300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST MON FEB 23 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT...DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF 56 N. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-240300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST MON FEB 23 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 24 FT.
SNOW.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 60 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-240300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST MON FEB 23 2009

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 60 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 32 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-240300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST MON FEB 23 2009

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 3S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. SNOW
AND
RAIN. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING TO SW 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 23 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 60 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 33 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 22 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD IN THE SHORT TERM AND
IMPROVING FOR LONGER TERMS. THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN HAS BEEN IN
THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PERIODS IN THE BERING SEA. THE STRONG LOW
THAT WILL BE THERE HAS BEEN INCONSISTENTLY HANDLED BY PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SEEM TO HAVE SETTLED ON A SIMILAR PATH
THAT IS BRINGING SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AS WELL. FOR AFTERNOON
PRODUCTS THE FAVORED TRACK WILL MATCH THE GFS CLOSELY BUT THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE WILL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS DEEP AS THE GFS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS A RIDGE OVER THE
MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS UNTIL IT IS BROKEN DOWN SOME BY A SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE BERING SEA CONTINUES TO BE THE
FOCUS OF THE STORM TRACK AND THERE WILL BE A NUMBER OF STRONG STORMS
MOVING THROUGH IT THIS WEEK. THERE IS GOOD JET SUPPORT WITH THESE
STORM SYSTEMS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE MAIN ACTION THROUGH TOMORROW WILL BE IN
THE BERING SEA. A STRONG FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
BERING SEA AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT WEAKENS.
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN IN THE EASTERN
BERING SEA WITH ITS STRONG WARM ADVECTION.
AREAS EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE ARE LOOKING AT A PERIOD WITH JUST SOME
HIGH CLOUDS OVERRIDING THE UPPER RIDGE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE BERING SEA WILL REMAIN THE MORE ACTIVE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE SEA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEING THE STRONGEST SYSTEM. THIS
SYSTEM IS BEING MONITORED FOR HIGH WIND WARNING POTENTIAL IN THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING POTENTIAL IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL BERING SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 170 171 172 175 176 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FEB 09