Gale Warning 132, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
347 AM AKST MON FEB 23 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

FORECASTS WERE BLENDED TOWARDS THE GFS THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AS IT
IS SHOWING BETTER CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.  THIS IS
TRUE ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO THE MULTIPLE STORM SYSTEMS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTING THE BERING SEA THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OVER MOST OF THE MAINLAND BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT....WITH ONLY A HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS OVER THE
MAINLAND FROM THE ALASKA RANGE EAST.  A WEAKENING FRONT ALONG THE
WEST COAST IS BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE Y-K DELTA REGION.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH ASSOCIATED 1001 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED SOUTH
OF SHEMYA AT 50N 170E.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE DECAYING FRONT OVER THE BERING SEA
BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE DELTA REGION WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND
TODAY AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BRINGING ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WEST
OF THE ALASKA RANGE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.  THE LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH
OF SHEMYA WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE BERING TOWARDS THE BERING
STRAIT TODAY...BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE BERING SEA THROUGH
TONIGHT.  ANOTHER STRONGER LOW FORECAST BY THE GFS AT 985 MB TUESDAY
MORNING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND TRACK
TOWARDS THE YUKON-KUSKOKWIM DELTA REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.  THIS STORM
WILL LIKELY BRING STORM FORCE WINDS TO A GOOD PORTION OF THE BERING
SEA...AND POSSIBLY EVEN HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OVER OFFSHORE WATERS.
AS THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL IN THE YUKON DELTA LATE WEDNESDAY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD A GOOD PART
OF THE MAINLAND.  STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
UPPER TROUGH COULD MAKE FOR GUSTY WINDS EARLY THURSDAY ON THE AKPEN
AND WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE BERING SEA.  ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SURFACE HIGH...STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING HIGH WINDS TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.  COMBINED WITH A WEAK LOW FORECAST BY
THE GFS IN THE NORTHERN GULF...WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH CHANNELED
TERRAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE.  ANOTHER FRONT
WITH SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE
BERING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING...170 176 179 185 411 412
         STORM WARNING...172 175 413
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

CC/DS FEB 09