Storm Warning 37, NWS Anchorage, AK

872 
FZAK62 PAFC 220317 CCB
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2009

CORRECTED ZONE 414.

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-221500-
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A WEAKENING WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO
WEST COAST OF ALASKA SAT EVENING. A LARGE 966 MB LOW NEAR 52N 163E
WILL WEAKEN TO 971 MB NEAR 60N 170E SUN AFTERNOON THEN MOVE INTO
SIBERIA SUN EVENING. A 994 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC SUN
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO NEAR 56N 180 MON AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ411-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S WIND 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. SNOW.
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2009

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 24 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 19 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST FRI FEB 20 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND ARE
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. WINDS IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE GFS
HAVE MATCH OBSERVED WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BETTER THAN THE
NAM MODEL, WHICH APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE TOO WEAK. I WOULD SUGGEST
GOING WITH THE GFS OVER THE BERING SEA FOR TONIGHT, OTHERWISE, IT
YOUR CHOICE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL HAVE LITTLE
AFFECT DUE TO THE DRYNESS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA CONTINUES TO BUILD.

AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
WILL MOVE INTO THE YUKON TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL BE ESPECIALLY STRONG
THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AN INTENSE STORM
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS HAS PRODUCED WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 80 MPH THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
UPPER AIR...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL MOVE
INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY SATURDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
SATURDAY AND WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN ANY FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST OF ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. OTHERWISE, THE SKIES WILL GENERALLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY AS A
WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH RIPPLES THROUGH THE RIDGE.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN
BRISTOL BAY AND WESTERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY.

BERING SEA...THE STRONG STORM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT THEN MOVE INTO
SIBERIA SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST
BERING AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN ALASKA
SATURDAY. THE AREA OF STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO STORM FORCE WINDS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
PRIBILOFS LATE TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO GALES AS IT
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. A SECOND STORM DEVELOPING WEST OF HOKKAIDO
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

STORM FORCE WILL WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN TO GALES OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT. STORM COMING OFF THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH FOR 151 SATURDAY.
MARINE...STORM...170, 172, 179
         GALE...120, 121, 129, 130, 132, 155, 165, 175, 176, 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM FEB 09