Gale Warning 208, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 220116 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
237 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2009

UPDATED ZONES 165 170 AND 171.

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-221500-
237 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A WEAKENING WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO
WEST COAST OF ALASKA SAT EVENING. A LARGE 966 MB LOW 450 NM WEST OF
SHEMYA WILL WEAKEN TO 971 MB 500 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA SUN AFTERNOON
THEN MOVE INTO SIBERIA SUN EVENING. A 994 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC SUN AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 320 NORTHWEST OF ADAK MON
AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-221500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
237 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-221500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
237 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-221500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
237 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3
FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-221500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
415 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
45 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-221500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
237 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-221500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
415 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-221500-
UNALASKA BAY
415 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2009

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-221500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
237 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18
FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ175-221500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
237 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 29 FT. SNOW.
.MON...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-221500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
237 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 34 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
33 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-221500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
237 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-221500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
237 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST FRI FEB 20 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

ALOFT...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE ALCAN IS BEING SQUEEZED
BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING OVER WESTERN CANADA AND OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SEA.  THIS TROUGH IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD AS RIDGING HOLDS
TOUGH DOWNSTREAM.  BETWEEN THE BUILDING UPSTREAM BERING RIDGE
ADVANCING EASTWARD AND THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS
CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND
THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WITH ACCOMPANYING STRONG
COLD FRONT IS SPLITTING AS IT APPROACHES THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING
SEA AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED BEING
PUSHED NORTHWARD AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS.  TRANSITORY RIDGING EXISTS
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS JUST DOWNSTREAM OF A 494 DM LOW CURRENTLY
SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1046 MB HIGH WITH VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT
HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER MOST OF THE STATE...WHILE A 1016 MB LOW
IS LOCATED NEAR THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR 58N 141W IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS
CONTRIBUTING TO VERY STRONG NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS SUFFICIENT TO
MEET HIGH WIND CRITERIA THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER DELTA AND THOMPSON
PASS...AND ALSO PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS IN
COASTAL WATERS.  A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WITH STORM FORCE WINDS IS
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE GFS AND NAM WERE USED IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH 84 HOURS ON THE
EAST SIDE...WHILE THE GFS WAS ADEQUATE FOR USE THROUGH THE SAME TIME
FOR THE WEST SIDE.  AFTER 84 HOURS...THE ECMWF WAS AGAIN THE
PREFERRED MODEL...PARTICULARLY OUT WEST...WHERE THE ECMWF
TRADITIONALLY OUTPERFORMS THE GFS IN HANDLING SPLIT-FLOW REGIMES IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE.  NUDGED EXISTING WIND GRIDS IN THE EXTENDED TOWARDS
THE ECMWF ON THE EAST SIDE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
SURFACE LOW WEAKENS INTO A TROUGH ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST...DIMINISHING THE CURRENTLY LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT.  AS
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE COOK INLET AND COPPER
RIVER BASIN...COLD AIR SHOULD BE ABLE TO DRAIN DOWN FROM THE
NORTH...BRINGING A RETURN TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  WINDS SHOULD ALSO CONSIDERABLY
WEAKEN AS SURFACE RIDGING PREDOMINATES AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE ALASKA RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE MAINLAND SHUNTS MOST OF THE UPPER
ENERGY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT.  WITH THE LOSS OF THE
UPPER ENERGY...THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND STALL BY SUNDAY
WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...BUT NOT BEFORE PRODUCING BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTLINE OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA DURING THE DAY
TODAY.  ANOTHER STRONG DISTURBANCE WITH ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW WILL
WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BERING SEA MONDAY...BRINGING PRECIPITATION
TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND THE RETURN OF AT LEAST GALE
FORCE WINDS TO MOST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL MEAN RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER A VAST PART OF THE STATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH
THE TIMING OF DETAILS VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN WITH SUCH A PATTERN
IN PLACE.  IT WILL BE HARD TO KEEP COLD AIR FROM BECOMING ESTABLISHED
FOR ANY AMOUNT OF TIME IN SUCH A PATTERN...SO SHOULD SEE HIGHLY
VARIABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...131 135
         BLIZZARD WARNING...155
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 121 129 130 155 160 165 172 175 176 351
                        352 411
         STORM WARNING...170 171 179 180 185 412 413 414
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...121 129 130 140
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

CC/DS FEB 09