Storm Warning 271, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Oct 31, 2009, 4:00 PM AKDT (00:00 UTC)

Expired

Nov 1, 2009, 5:00 AM AKST

In force

14 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 312319
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 31 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-011400-
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 31 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. A 982 MB LOW 450 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA MOVES INLAND OVER
EASTERN RUSSIA SUNDAY MORNING AND WEAKENS. A 981 MB LOW 370 NM WEST
OF SHEMYA SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOVES TO 210 NM WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND AND INTENSIFIES TO 969 MB MONDAY AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-011400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 31 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-011400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 31 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-011400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 31 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-011400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 31 2009

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-011400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 31 2009

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-011400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 31 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT...INCREASING TO 20 KT TOWARDS
MORNING. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-011400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 31 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT...DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-011400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 31 2009

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT...BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SUN...WEST OF ATKA...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. EAST OF ATKA...VARIABLE 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...WEST OF ATKA...SW WIND 20 KT...INCREASING TO S 35 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. EAST OF ATKA...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT
BECOMING S 25 KT TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-011400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 31 2009

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT...BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-011400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 31 2009

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT...DIMINISHING TO 20 KT TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS
20 FT...SUBSIDING TO 14 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-011400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 31 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-011400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 31 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT...INCREASING TO 25 KT TOWARDS MORNING.
SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Oct 31, 5:10 AM AKDT, 10 hours 50 minutes earlier.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
510 AM AKDT SAT OCT 31 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF A WEAK LOW THAT
DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA TODAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
BEFORE HEADING EAST BY LATE SUNDAY TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE. IN THE
EXTENDED...MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS AGAIN GONE OUT THE PROVERBIAL
WINDOW...THOUGH THEY GENERALLY AGREE ON A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM
HEADING EAST ACROSS THE BERING SEA THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...AND THEN AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND BY THE MIDDLE TO END
OF THE WEEK.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A WEAK 995 MB LOW IS DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL GULF THIS MORNING
ALONG A PRESSURE TROUGH LEFT OVER FROM THE LOW THAT MOVED INLAND OVER
THE PANHANDLE YESTERDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GULF
REGION...AND THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE RESIDE FROM THE CHUCHKI SEA SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN BERING SEA AND ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. EVEN SAINT PAUL
IS ENJOYING WEAK WINDS AND A PARTLY CLOUDY MORNING. TO THE WEST...THE
FIRST IN A PARADE OF DISTURBANCES IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST WITH A FRONT
MOVING FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT BEFORE SLIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC OCEAN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE REFUSES TO YIELD
EASILY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...

GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
MATANUSKA VALLEY GAP WINDS HAVE BEEN STAYING RATHER STRONG THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AND LATEST NAM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE HIGH
WIND WARNING WILL NEED TO EXTENDED A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THE LATE
MORNING PERIOD. THE OBSERVATIONS THUS FAR SUPPORT THIS AS PALMER
AIRPORT HAS CONTINUED TO GUST UP ABOVE 60 MPH UP TO THE ORIGINAL
EXPIRATION TIME. A RELATIVELY STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
TALKEETNA AND ANCHORAGE HAS HELPED TO BEND THESE GUSTY WINDS INTO
MOST OF ANCHORAGE AS WELL (ESPECIALLY THE WEST SIDE)...BUT GUIDANCE
IS SUPPORTIVE OF DIMINISHING THESE WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS BEFORE BECOMING MUCH WEAKER BY THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION...WINDS HAVE COME DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND WITH A WEAKENING
NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT WE SEE NO REASON TO CONTINUE THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING PERIOD...IT IS POSSIBLE AS
WARM ADVECTION MOVES OVER THE CORDOVA AREA AND THE UPPER LOW SWINGS
BACK TO THE WEST TOWARDS THE WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA THAT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
SUNNY WITH SOME HAZE NEAR AREAS OF STRONG WINDS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL DIMINISHING TREND IN THE WINDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER ALL OF SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE TROUGH IN
THE GULF WEAKENS...THUS RELAXING THE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE DELTA REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF WINDS
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW IN
THE GULF AND THE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD WEAKENS. THE NORTHERLY JET THAT
REMAINS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GULF AND HELP TO MOVE THE UPPER RIDGE NORTH AND EASTWARD
OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA...

THINGS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE SHORT TERM OUT WEST. A MODERATE
STRENGTH FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
WILL WORK ITS WAY WEST TO EAST FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS INTO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WINDS REACHING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE THE FRONT WASHES
OUT AND A WEAK LOW THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE
PACIFIC OCEAN. THE NEXT SYSTEM ON ITS HEELS WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWEST
BERING AROUND SUNDAY MIDDAY WITH A GALE FORCE FRONT THAT WILL RACE
EASTWARD. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGION TO THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND THEN THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN TO GALE FORCE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

BEYOND MONDAY...IT APPEARS THE PATTERN WILL BE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN IN THE PAST WEEK. THERE ARE STILL STRONG INDICATIONS THAT A
LARGE PARENT LOW OVER THE EASTERN ASIA MAINLAND WILL EJECT ITSELF
ACROSS THE BERING SEA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
HELP TO BRING MUCH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE COMING WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...111
MARINE...GALE WARNING...130 140 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

CC OCT 09

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2009Every storm warning in 2009

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.