Storm Warning 27, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 081551 AAA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
645 AM AKST SUN FEB 8 2009

UPDATED ALL ZONES 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-090300-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 961 MB LOW AT 52N 168E WILL WEAKEN TO 972 MB AT 52N 160E MON
MORNING. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE
SOUTHERN BERING THROUGH MON MORNING. A 972 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 50N
170E MON MORNING AND STRENGTHEN TO 966 MB NEAR 53N 167E MON NIGHT. A
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-090300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
645 AM AKST SUN FEB 8 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 TO 26 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. S OF 56N...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. 
SEAS 20 TO 26 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.  
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-090300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
645 AM AKST SUN FEB 8 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 12 TO 20 FT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. SNOW. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-090300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
645 AM AKST SUN FEB 8 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 TO 50 KT SHIFTING TO SOUTH 20 TO 30 KT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING 12 TO 18 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-090300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
645 AM AKST SUN FEB 8 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 090046
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 8 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-091500-
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A STRONG FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
SUN NIGHT AND MON. A 975 MB LOW NEAR 45N 167E WILL MOVE TO 50N 170E
SUN NIGHT AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AT 52N 165E MON
AFTERNOON. A STRONG FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO 
THE SOUTHWEST BERING LATE MON AND THEN TRACK NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE BERING THROUGH TUE. 

$$

PKZ411-091500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 8 2009

...STORM WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
28 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 32 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-091500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 8 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
26 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-091500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 8 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT DURING THE EVENING. 
SEAS 18 FT. SNOW. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-091500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 8 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 24 FT.  

$$

484 
FZAK62 PAFC 091303
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST MON FEB 9 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-100300-
400 AM AKST MON FEB 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 972 MB LOW NEAR 50N 170E WILL WEAKEN TO 987 MB NEAR 55N 172E WED
MORNING. A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BERING
SEA MON AND TUE.
$$

PKZ411-100300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST MON FEB 9 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55 N.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-100300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST MON FEB 9 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-100300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST MON FEB 9 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-100300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST MON FEB 9 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 22 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 100007
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON FEB 9 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-101500-
400 PM AKST MON FEB 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 970 MB LOW NEAR 52N 170E WILL WEAKEN TO 995 MB AS IT MOVES TO 
58N 176W WED AFTERNOON. A STRONG FRONT ALONG THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE BERING MON NIGHT AND TUE. A
PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK TO 48N 173E WED AFTERNOON AT 972 MB.
$$

PKZ411-101500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST MON FEB 9 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT...DIMINISHING TO SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.  
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-101500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON FEB 9 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.  
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-101500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON FEB 9 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT...INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-101500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST MON FEB 9 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT...INCREASING TO 35 KT DURING THE LATE
EVENING. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11
FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 101309
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 10 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-110300-
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 10 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 968 MB LOW NEAR 54N 170E WILL DISSIPATE NEAR 58N 179E WED
AFTERNOON. A 971 MB NEAR 49N 175E WED AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN TO
959 MB NEAR 53N 178E THU MORNING.
$$

PKZ411-110300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 10 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT E 35 KT NORTH OF 56N THIS MORNING.
SEAS 24 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT. 
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 55 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-110300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 10 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 17 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-110300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 10 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 19 FT. 
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-110300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 10 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 30 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 21 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 23 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 19 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST SAT FEB 7 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

ALOFT...A POWERFUL UPPER VORTEX OVER THE ARCTIC SEA CENTERED NEAR
80N 160W AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN BERING
SEA ARE THE KEY FEATURES AFFECTING THE WEATHER OVER THE STATE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HEIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE
AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS INTENSIFYING
A POWERFUL NORTHWESTERLY JET STREAK RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA AS WELL AS THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA. A BROADER SET OF BAGGY SHORTWAVES IS CENTERED
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND
ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU VALLEY OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY FOG.  OUT
WEST...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AMPLIFYING
RIDGE IS SUPPORTING STRONG WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE IN THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS.

AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS NORTH AND WESTWARD FROM
THE 982 MB LOW SOUTH OF YAKUTAT THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF AND ACROSS
THE INTERIOR OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. ON THE WEST AND SOUTH SIDE OF THIS
FRONT STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING WIND GUSTS
OF UP TO 50 MPH AND BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA REGIONS...WHILE SURFACE CONVERGENCE
WITH THE TROUGH IS FUNNELING COLD AIR SOUTHWARD FROM THE INTERIOR
INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. STRONG RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL BERING SEA. A POWERFUL 965MB LOW SOUTH OF SHEMYA IS BRINGING
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE GFS WAS USED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE
MAINLY FOR ITS CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS ...THOUGH IT
WAS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE ECMWF AND THE NAM IN THE NEAR TERM.
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE ABOUT FOUR DAYS OUT...SO PERSISTENCE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS WAS USED FROM THAT POINT ONWARDS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. THE BIG DIFFERENCE OUT AT THAT TIME FRAME IS THE GFS
IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE UPPER LOW (CURRENTLY WEST
OF SHEMYA) MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...A LOW AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK RESULTING IN A FAIRLY
RAPID STORM TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE...A HEMISPHERIC VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD TOWARD MAINLAND ALASKA HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE GULF WILL AMPLIFY
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS SHORT-WAVES ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH
DROP SOUTHWARD...WHILE THE TROUGH ITSELF PROGRESSES EASTWARD.
MODERATE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE
NORTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND WATERS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS THROUGH THE
USUAL GAPS IN THE ALASKA PENINSULA. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING
ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA...BUT
AS AREA OF STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING
SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS SHOULD BOTH BEGIN TO DIMINISH...SO BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING. CURRENT WARNINGS EXTEND ONLY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SO MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THESE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. IN ADDITION TO COLD
ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND PASS SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...GENERATING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. MEANWHILE...COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT AND HELP TO MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THE COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A BIT OF
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY GAP WINDS ALONG THE ALASKA
RANGE AS WELL AS THE COASTAL RANGES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WITH
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN SUSITNA
VALLEY WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY BEGINNING
THIS EVENING AS WINDS INCREASE THROUGH BROAD PASS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT IN ANCHORAGE AND VICINITY...SO FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
FLOAT AROUND THE AREA. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BEHIND THE
UPPER TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LEAVING THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
COLD AND DRY.

THE STRONG LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL TRACK NORTHWARD INTO
THE WESTERN BERING WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT IS PUSHED
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND NORTHERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL HELP
TO ELONGATE AND WEAKEN THE FRONT WITH TIME. THERE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH WARM AIR ALONG THE FRONT TO PREVENT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKE A STRONG POSSIBILITY FOR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL NOT ACTUALLY REACH THE
PRIBILOFS...BUT PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD EASILY MAKE
IT THERE. THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL FROM SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY TRACK SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA
AND GULF OF ALASKA. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN ALASKA
PENINSULA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...BUT IF THIS DOES OCCUR IT
SHOULD EB SHORT-LIVED. ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND TRACK TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY
BRINING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND AND PRECIP. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE THIS LOW WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT SYSTEM. WITH A LESS
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF IT THE FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO PROGRESS
ALTHOUGH THE WAY TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF
STORM SYSTEMS MID TO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS AGREE ON THE
LONG-WAVE PATTERN WITH TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE BERING AND NORTHWEST
PACIFIC AND A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC UP TOWARD THE GULF
OF ALASKA. THUS...EXPECT AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE BERING SEA
AND ALEUTIANS TO MAINLAND ALASKA. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
LONG-WAVE PATTERN OVER ALASKA WILL REMAIN LOW AMPLITUDE...SO THE BULK
OF THE WARM AIR SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OVER THE PACIFIC AND ANY
THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE
SNOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 191. BLIZZARD WARNING 181.
         BLIZZARD WATCH 195.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...176.
         STORM WARNING...172 175.
         GALE WARNING...121 129 130 132 150 155 160 165 170 171 179
         180 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...121 129 130 138 150 155 160 165
         179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

CC/SEB FEB 09