Hurricane Force Wind Warning 1, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 081256
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 8 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-090300-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 961 MB LOW AT 52N 168E WILL WEAKEN TO 972 MB AT 52N 160E MON
MORNING. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE
SOUTHERN BERING THROUGH MON MORNING. A 972 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 50N
170E MON MORNING AND STRENGTHEN TO 966 MB NEAR 53N 167E MON NIGHT. A
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-090300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 8 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 60 KT. SEAS 29 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 29 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
27 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.  
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-090300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 8 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 19 FT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-090300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 8 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT...EXCEPT SE WIND 45 KT THIS MORNING EAST OF
174W. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-090300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 8 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. SNOW. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST SAT FEB 7 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AT THE SURFACE...A 987 MB LOW IS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA. A 994 MB LOW IS WEAKENING OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. A FRONT LOCATED WELL AHEAD OF A NORTH PACIFIC LOW IS
APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND
WESTERN MAINLAND. A RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING
SEA. ELSEWHERE...SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND
AND GULF OF ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH GENERAL
AGREEMENT THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE BY 00Z
TUESDAY. MAIN DISAGREEMENTS PERTAIN TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC LOW APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS EARLY IN THE WEEK.
MODELS ARE ALSO HAVING PROBLEMS DISCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT AND
SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW IN THE GULF ON MONDAY.
FORECASTS THROUGH MONDAY WERE CONSTRUCTED USING A GFS/NAM BLEND FOR
CONSISTENCY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL IN THE SHORT TERM IS FOG
FORMATION ALONG COOK INLET AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY. FOG SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ON THE DECREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON...WITH REFORMATION
TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS. KODIAK ISLAND WILL SEE AN INCREASED THREAT
OF SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

.SOUTHWEST...
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE LOW OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY DISSIPATES. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO TRANSLATING EASTWARD...ACTING TO SYNOPTICALLY
ENHANCE SNOWFALL. SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL BE HEAVIEST
ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA...WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVING
BY TONIGHT AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES. SUNDAY WILL SEE A DWINDLING
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY...ALONG WITH STRONG EASTERLY WINDS. THE FRONT
WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS...AFFECTING THE CENTRAL ISLANDS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THE EASTERN ISLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW IN THE PRIBILOFS...BUT WILL NOT BE
AS WIDESPREAD AS OVER THE ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING IN THE GULF ON MONDAY WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A QUASI STATIONARY LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY...AND PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY. ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL IMPACT THE ALEUTIANS AND
BERING SEA MID TO LATE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 191
MARINE...STORM 175 176
         GALE 130 132 150 155 160 165 170 172
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 150 155 165 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NRH FEB 09