Storm Warning 269, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 220025
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-221500-
400 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A STRONG WEATHER FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL
GULF TONIGHT AND TO THE EASTERN GULF TUE MORNING...GRADUALLY
WEAKENING. A 980 MB LOW MOVES NORTHWEST TO 57N 148W LATE TUE
NIGHT...THEN TO 59N 153W AT 986 MB WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-221500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 15 TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-221500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2009

CORRECTED TYP0S

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVELS...A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BERING SEA AND
THE ALEUTIANS CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND A COMMON CENTER OVER THE THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL BERING. A RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE GULF AND EASTERN
MAINLAND. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER WESTERN ALASKA.
AT THE SURFACE...A MULTI-CENTERED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS. STRONG SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW
OVER WESTERN MAINLAND AND WESTERN GULF.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE GULF AND MOST OF MAINLAND
ALASKA BUT STILL HAVE A FEW PROBLEMS OVER THE BERING SEA. THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST SOLUTIONS OVER THE SHORT
TERM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND THE GULF...A WEATHER FRONT SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL SWING INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND KODIAK ISLAND MONDAY
THEN WEAKEN OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY.
AREA OF STRONG WINDS AND RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
KODIAK ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RAIN AND SNOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE KENAI PENINSULA AND SUSITNA VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL SPREAD SPREAD INTO PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE MORE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH TUESDAY. AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
SWITCHING OVER TO ALL SNOW AS COOLER AIR MOVES BACK OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY. AREAS OF STRONG WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT.
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
AND SOUTHWESTERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE REGION AS
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE BERING THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND MAINLAND ALASKA WILL SLIDE INTO
WESTERN CANADA AND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING SEA WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE AREA OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL
SHIFT THE TRACK OF THE LOWS FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
MIDWEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR BRISTOL BAY.
MARINE...STORM 130 132 150 155 160 165 180
         GALE 120 170 172 175 176 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM DEC 09