Gale Warning 927, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 211202
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-220300-
400 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A STRONG WEATHER FRONT IN
THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL GULF BY THIS EVENING AND TO
THE EASTERN GULF BY TUE MORNING. A 998 MB LOW NEAR 50N 145W WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 990 MB AT 57N 148W EARLY WED MORNING. 

$$

PKZ351-220300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
24 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-220300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
25 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST SUN DEC 20 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MAJOR MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AFFECTING THE STATE OF ALASKA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
UNFORTUNATELY THE ALL-IMPORTANT DETAILS OF THE SURFACE PATTERN ARE
NOT SO CLEAR. SPEED AND INTENSITY ARE BOTH IN QUESTION REGARDING THE
LOW APPROACHING THE ALASKA PENINSULA TODAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY...MODEL
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING. THE
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REFLECT A GENERAL TREND TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...WITH SOME NAM USED OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS ENCOMPASSING THE
BERING SEA REGION AND EXTENDS WELL SOUTH INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC
OCEAN. SUPPORTING THIS TROUGH IS A STRONG 210 KT JET STREAM...A
STRONG BRANCH OF WHICH CURVES NORTH TOWARD MAINLAND ALASKA AND IS
BRINGING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR TOWARDS THE
STATE. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS IS DRIFTING
NORTHWEST AS A NEW AND STRONGER LOW IS COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH
TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA. OVER SOUTHCENTRAL...THE WEATHER FRONT
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY IN THE NORTHERN GULF IS
DISSIPATING RAPIDLY THIS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...HEAVY SNOW IN THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY IS RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ALREADY CLEARED
THE AREA...THUS THE SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELLED. OTHER MAIN
CONCERN TODAY INVOLVES WINDS...OVER BOTH SOUTHERN KODIAK ISLAND AS
WELL AS POSSIBLY TURNAGAIN ARM LATER TONIGHT. WINDS MAY APPROACH
WARNING LEVELS IN BOTH LOCATIONS. DUE TO LOW MODEL CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME WILL WAIT FOR MORNING MODEL RUNS TO MAKE A CALL ABOUT POSSIBLE
WARNINGS...BUT WILL HINT STRONGLY AT INCLEMENT CONDITIONS IN THE
MORNING FORECAST.

.SOUTHWEST...BLIZZARD WARNING OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL BE SCALED
BACK TO INCLUDE ONLY THE COAST...AS INTERIOR AREAS HAVE NOW WARMED
ABOVE FREEZING. IN BRISTOL BAY...SNOW HAS BEEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN
EXPECTED...AND ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS ALONG THE AHKLUN MOUNTAINS ARE
LIKELY SEEING SIGNIFICANT SNOW...HAVE OPTED TO REPLACE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING. AS LOW APPROACHES THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL
THROUGH GAPS IN THE ALEUTIAN RANGE...WITH GUSTS REACHING 80 MPH
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE VIGOROUS LOW IN THE BERING WILL
WEAKEN BUT GENERALLY STAY IN PLACE...WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT EASTWARD. WHILE THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES OVER MAINLAND ALASKA TO MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE PERSISTENT TROUGH IN THE BERING MEANS
INTERMITTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EASTERN
BERING...SOUTHCENTRAL...AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 155
         HIGH WIND WARNING 161
MARINE...STORM WARNING 130 132 138 140 150 155 160
         GALE WARNING 120 141 165 179 180 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD DEC 09