Storm Warning 268, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 210009
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-211500-
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF MON THEN MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN GULF TUE.

$$

PKZ351-211500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 12 TO 15 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-211500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2009

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT BECOMING SE 40 TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 16 TO 21 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 21 TO 27 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
26 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 211202
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-220300-
400 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A STRONG WEATHER FRONT IN
THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL GULF BY THIS EVENING AND TO
THE EASTERN GULF BY TUE MORNING. A 998 MB LOW NEAR 50N 145W WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 990 MB AT 57N 148W EARLY WED MORNING. 

$$

PKZ351-220300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
24 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-220300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
25 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 220025
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-221500-
400 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A STRONG WEATHER FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL
GULF TONIGHT AND TO THE EASTERN GULF TUE MORNING...GRADUALLY
WEAKENING. A 980 MB LOW MOVES NORTHWEST TO 57N 148W LATE TUE
NIGHT...THEN TO 59N 153W AT 986 MB WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-221500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 15 TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-221500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST SAT DEC 19 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL...A MULTI-CENTERED LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER THE BERING SEA. AN UPPER RIDGE LIES OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND EASTERN ALASKA. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BEGINNING TO FORM
OVER WESTERN ALASKA.
AT THE SURFACE...THE SURFACE PATTERN GENERALLY MIRRORS THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN. AN AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERED THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA, SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND YUKON TERRITORY. A STRONG 964 MB LOW
LIES OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BERING SEA AND ANOTHER 966 MB LOW IS OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. A WEATHER FRONT LIES OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA
AND WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA.

MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIATE WELL BUT THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS OVER THE BERING SEA
BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN CLOSER
AGREEMENT THAN THE EUROPEAN MODEL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT DEVELOP
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. NEEDLESS TO SAY, OVERALL
CONFIDENCE BEYOND THE FIRST 24 HOURS IS RATHER LOW DUE TO THE HIGH
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE THE WESTERN BERING WILL SWING NORTHEAST
AND DISSIPATE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND THE EASTERN BERING BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY OVER
THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO FEED A WARM MOIST AIR MASS INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA. SNOW MAINLY ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, OVER
KENAI PENINSULA AND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY RISE
THROUGH MONDAY AS A WARMER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
STRONG MOIST FLOW FROM THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
THROUGH MONDAY. FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT LOWER LEVELS WILL TENDED
TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KING
SALMON IN THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE AND GENERALLY WEST OF SLEETMUTE IN THE
SOUTHERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY ZONE. AREAS OF STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BLOW OUT OF THE PASSES ALONG THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGE THROUGH
MONDAY. POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA COAST AS INCREASING WINDS AND FALLING SNOW REDUCE VISIBILITIES
IN BLOWING SNOW. ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY OVER THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE.

.BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
A SERIES OF PROGRESSING LOWS WILL GENERATE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND THE BERING SEA SUNDAY. RAIN AND
SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN DUE TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MODELS TEND TO WEAKEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND
DRIFTS EAST INTO CANADA. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL
WEAKEN A BIT AND SPREAD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING...131 155
MARINE...STORM...150 155 160 165 172
         GALE...130 132 138 170 176 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NM DEC 09