Gale Warning 983, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 210009
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-211500-
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 960 MB LOW 250 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL STRENGTHEN TO 948 MB
100 NM WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND MON AFTERNOON THEN WILL WEAKEN 
TO 969 MB 400 NM WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND TUE AFTERNOON. A 970 
MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF ADAK WILL DISSIPATE 220 NM SOUTH OF ATKA SUN
NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ150-211500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2009

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT BUILDING TO 30 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 28 FT.
RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-211500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 22 FT BUILDING TO 33 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-211500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-211500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-211500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-211500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-211500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-211500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-211500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2009

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-211500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-211500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. SNOW. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-211500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 
FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST SAT DEC 19 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL...A MULTI-CENTERED LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER THE BERING SEA. AN UPPER RIDGE LIES OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND EASTERN ALASKA. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BEGINNING TO FORM
OVER WESTERN ALASKA.
AT THE SURFACE...THE SURFACE PATTERN GENERALLY MIRRORS THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN. AN AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERED THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA, SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND YUKON TERRITORY. A STRONG 964 MB LOW
LIES OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BERING SEA AND ANOTHER 966 MB LOW IS OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. A WEATHER FRONT LIES OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA
AND WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA.

MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIATE WELL BUT THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS OVER THE BERING SEA
BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN CLOSER
AGREEMENT THAN THE EUROPEAN MODEL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT DEVELOP
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. NEEDLESS TO SAY, OVERALL
CONFIDENCE BEYOND THE FIRST 24 HOURS IS RATHER LOW DUE TO THE HIGH
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE THE WESTERN BERING WILL SWING NORTHEAST
AND DISSIPATE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND THE EASTERN BERING BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY OVER
THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO FEED A WARM MOIST AIR MASS INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA. SNOW MAINLY ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, OVER
KENAI PENINSULA AND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY RISE
THROUGH MONDAY AS A WARMER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
STRONG MOIST FLOW FROM THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
THROUGH MONDAY. FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT LOWER LEVELS WILL TENDED
TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KING
SALMON IN THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE AND GENERALLY WEST OF SLEETMUTE IN THE
SOUTHERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY ZONE. AREAS OF STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BLOW OUT OF THE PASSES ALONG THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGE THROUGH
MONDAY. POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA COAST AS INCREASING WINDS AND FALLING SNOW REDUCE VISIBILITIES
IN BLOWING SNOW. ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY OVER THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE.

.BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
A SERIES OF PROGRESSING LOWS WILL GENERATE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND THE BERING SEA SUNDAY. RAIN AND
SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN DUE TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MODELS TEND TO WEAKEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND
DRIFTS EAST INTO CANADA. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL
WEAKEN A BIT AND SPREAD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING...131 155
MARINE...STORM...150 155 160 165 172
         GALE...130 132 138 170 176 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NM DEC 09