Storm Warning 263, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 071239
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST MON DEC 7 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-080300-
400 AM AKST MON DEC 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 965 MB LOW PRESSURE AT 50N 172W WEAKENS TO 973 MB AS IT MOVES TO 
53N 174W THIS AFTERNOON...THEN IS ABSORBED BY A 973 MB LOW 
DEVELOPING NEAR 55N 173E. THIS LOW WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TOWARD
SIBERIA. A 983 MB LOW MOVES NORTH TO 47N 179E TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-080300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST MON DEC 7 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N OF 56N...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT. S OF
56N...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-080300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST MON DEC 7 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 TO 24 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-080300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST MON DEC 7 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT SE 40 TO 50 KT E OF 174W. SEAS
15 TO 19 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-080300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST MON DEC 7 2009

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 080023
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON DEC 7 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-081500-
400 PM AKST MON DEC 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...A 971 MB LOW NEAR 55N 175E WILL
WEAKEN TO 1002 MB AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD SIBERIA.

$$

PKZ411-081500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST MON DEC 7 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NORTH OF 56 N...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING S. SOUTH OF 56
N...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-081500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON DEC 7 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-081500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON DEC 7 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF 174 W...S WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. W OF 174 W...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S.  SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-081500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST MON DEC 7 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 081204
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-090300-
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 975 MB LOW AT 56N 173E WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TOWARD SIBERIA. A
COMPLEX 985 MB LOW MOVES NORTH TO 47N 179E TONIGHT...THEN MAINTAINS
ITS STRENGTH AS IT DRIFTS TO 47N 169W WED NIGHT. ANOTHER 985 MB LOW
MOVES NORTHWEST TO NEAR 52N 173W WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-090300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 TO 13 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-090300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-090300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY LATE MORNING.
SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-090300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2009

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKST SUN DEC 6 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST PACIFIC
TO EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND A TROUGH FROM EASTERN RUSSIA
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BERING AND NORTH PACIFIC TO ABOUT 30N LATITUDE.
A 135 KT JET IS FLOWING SE TO NW ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
AROUND THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE.

AN ESTIMATED 958 MB LOW IS JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WITH
AN ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION STRETCHING SOUTHWARD UNDER THE JET STREAM.
WIDESPREAD STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TO
THE BERING SEA WITH HURRICANE GUSTS ALONG THE CHAIN NOT TOO UNCOMMON.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TUESDAY AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
TODAY BUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS WEST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS WELL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  BUILDING OVER THE NORTH GULF
COAST...WE SHOULD START TO SEE THOSE CLOUDS ERODE. ABNORMALLY WARM
AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK
RESULTING IN AN INCREDIBLE TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE BUT WELL INTO THE MID 40S AT BETWEEN
2000 AND 5000 FT. AS THE MID CLOUDS ERODE AWAY...HAVE TO CONSIDER THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT UNDER THAT STRONG
INVERSION. AT THIS POINT...THINKING IS THAT IT WILL BE MAINLY ALONG
THE INLET AND NOT WIDESPREAD IF IT DOES DEVELOP.

CONDITIONS REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...POSSIBLY NOT
UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN THE COLD AIR RETURNS. MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE
AXIS FINALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST ALLOWING A VERY COLD AIRMASS FROM
NORTHERN CANADA TO SPILL SOUTHWEST IN TO THE ALASKA MAINLAND.

SOUTHWEST INTERIOR...THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE IS
RESULTING IN VERY STRONG WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES FROM BRISTOL BAY
UP TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE FOUND
IN THIS REGION WITH LOCAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 65 MPH THROUGH CHANNELED
TERRAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WHEN
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS WEST AND THE AFFECTS OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE SPREAD OVER THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SLOW DRYING TREND IN ADDITION TO THE
DIMINISHED WINDS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS OUT WEST WHERE THE
WIND IS SCREAMING AROUND THE LARGE OCCLUDED LOW. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 78
MPH TODAY HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT DUTCH HARBOR WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
65 MPH. HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN IN AFFECT WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
PRIBILOFS WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS AFTERNOONS PACKAGE. A SHORT WAVE
FLOWING TO THE NORTH ALONG THE JET STREAM WILL HELP FOCUS THE WIND
ALONG THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER A
WATCH FOR THE WESTERN CAPES UP TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AS GUSTS TO 75
MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION AS WELL.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE RAPIDLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS ALL OF THE ENERGY
MOVES NORTH. ANOTHER GALE FORCE STORM AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY SETS UP
ALONG THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY BUT NOTHING NEARLY AS POTENT AS
THE CURRENT SYSTEM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 181 185.
         HIGH WIND WATCH 191.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...150 155 160 165 170 172 179 180 185.
         GALE WARNING...132 138 140 171 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB DEC 09