Storm Warning 222, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Nov 4, 2009, 3:52 PM AKST (00:52 UTC)

Expired

Nov 5, 2009, 4:00 AM AKST

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 050054
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
352 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-051300-
352 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 950 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK WILL DEEPEN TO 947 MB IN
THE GULF THU AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN TO 964 MB IN THE NORTHEAST GULF
FRI AFTERNOON. A 1014 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA THU
AFTERNOON DEEPENS TO 1008 MB FRI AFTERNOON 150 NM SOUTH OF ATKA.

$$

PKZ150-051300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
352 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-051300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
352 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-051300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
352 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-051300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
352 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-051300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
352 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-051300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
352 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT...EXCEPT 20 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT...EXCEPT 18 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT...EXCEPT 15 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-051300-
UNALASKA BAY
352 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW 
SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-051300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
352 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-051300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
352 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-051300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
352 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-051300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
352 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-051300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
352 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Nov 4, 5:00 AM AKST, 10 hours 52 minutes earlier.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SIBERIA...ACROSS
THE BERING AND AKPEN...ACROSS THE GULF AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS EMBEDDED IN THIS TROUGH
ARE OVER THE ENTIRE BERING AND SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. A RIDGE
IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST AK. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE BERING TO THE WASHINGTON OREGON
COAST. LOW CENTERS WITHIN THIS AREA ARE LOCATED OVER THE AKPEN AND
EASTERN BERING...AND WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF. REMNANTS OF A FRONT ARE
OVER SOUTHWEST AK AND THE AK AND ALEUTIAN RANGES...WHILE A SECOND
FRONT IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS UP THE AKPEN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A COMPLEX PATTERN. ALL AGREE THAT
THE AKPEN LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON...MERGING WITH
THE LOW THAT STARTS THE DAY SOUTH OF THE GULF. THE COMBINED LOW WILL
DEEPEN TO AROUND 948 MB TONIGHT AND IN THE EC PREFERRED SOLUTION SPIN
AROUND IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF UNTIL DISSIPATING SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE BERING AND ANOTHER ALEUTIAN LOW
RACES TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF BY SUN NIGHT. THE FORECAST USES THE
NAM AND GFS IN THE EARLY PERIODS FOR DETAIL...AND THEN BLENDS TOWARD
THE 00Z EC AND SOME HPC GUIDANCE IN THE MID AND LONG RANGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS WILL BE DOMINATED BY GALE AND
STORM FORCE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE
WESTERN HALF AND THROUGH SAT IN THE EASTERN HALF. THESE WINDS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS. DRYING BENEATH A RIDGE WILL AFFECT THE
WESTERN PORTION FRI AND SAT AND THE EASTERN AREA SUN.  A WEATHER
FRONT FROM AN EASTERN RUSSIA LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BERING SUN AND
SUN NIGHT...PRECEDED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND STRONG WINDS AND
FOLLOWED BY SNOW SHOWERS.

FOR SOUTHWEST AK...STRONG WIND THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG WITH
RAIN WILL AFFECT AREAS NEAR THE ALEUTIAN RANGE TODAY WITH SNOW AND
WIND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. SOME RAIN/SNOW SHADOWING CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE. WARMER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AS THE LOWS CONSOLIDATE IN THE GULF. DRYER CONDITIONS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA THU. COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN FRI AND LAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ON NORTHWEST FLOW.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING ABUNDANT
PRECIPITATION ONSHORE TODAY WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL TO EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE AK RANGE. THE LATTER WILL CUT
OFF WHEN THE LOWS CONSOLIDATE IN THE GULF THU AND FLOW BECOMES
NORTHEAST. FROM THAT POINT UNTIL THE GULF LOW DISSIPATES ON
SUN...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO COASTAL SECTIONS AND
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH WARM AIR MOVING INLAND WILL CAUSE MOST OF THIS
TO BE RAIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE FAR WEST...WHILE
WIND AND RAIN WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN BERING. SOUTHWEST AK WILL BE
DRY UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES WITH WIND...AND SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN MON
AND TUE. SOUTHEAST OF THE AK RANGE WILL BE DRY AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 129 132 138 140 141 160 165 171 175 176 179 185
         STORMS 120 125 130 150 155 170 172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS NOV 09

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2009Every storm warning in 2009

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.