Storm Warning 221, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Nov 4, 2009, 3:19 PM AKST (00:19 UTC)

Expired

Nov 5, 2009, 3:30 AM AKST

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 050021
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
319 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-051230-
319 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 952 MB LOW 85 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL MERGE WITH A 949
MB LOW 325 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY. THIS LOW WILL MAINTAIN
STRENGTH AS IT DRIFTS NORTH TO 180 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND THURSDAY EVENING...THEN WEAKEN TO 964 MB AS IT MOVES TO
NEAR 140 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


$$

PKZ120-051230-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
319 PM AST WED NOV 4 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 65 KT IN THE EVENING ALONG THE COAST EAST OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-051230-
RESURRECTION BAY
319 PM AST WED NOV 4 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-051230-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
319 PM AST WED NOV 4 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E WIND 50 KT IN THE EVENING
WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. WIND DIMINISHING
TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-051230-
PASSAGE CANAL
319 PM AST WED NOV 4 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.


$$

PKZ130-051230-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
319 PM AST WED NOV 4 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 55 KT BECOMING EAST WIND 30 KT E OF BARREN
ISLANDS IN THE EVENING. SEAS 20 FT EXCEPT 12 FT WEST OF BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT EXCEPT 12 FT WEST OF BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT EXCEPT 8 FT WEST OF BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-051230-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
319 PM AST WED NOV 4 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NW WIND 40 KT SOUTH OF DANGEROUS
CAPE. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 45 KT SOUTH OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 45 KT SOUTH OF DANGEROUS CAPE.
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-051230-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
319 PM AST WED NOV 4 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.

SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-051230-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
319 PM AST WED NOV 4 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT EXCEPT N 35 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
13 FT EXCEPT 7 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 5 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-051230-
KACHEMAK BAY
319 PM AST WED NOV 4 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Nov 4, 5:00 AM AKST, 10 hours 19 minutes earlier.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SIBERIA...ACROSS
THE BERING AND AKPEN...ACROSS THE GULF AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS EMBEDDED IN THIS TROUGH
ARE OVER THE ENTIRE BERING AND SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. A RIDGE
IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST AK. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE BERING TO THE WASHINGTON OREGON
COAST. LOW CENTERS WITHIN THIS AREA ARE LOCATED OVER THE AKPEN AND
EASTERN BERING...AND WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF. REMNANTS OF A FRONT ARE
OVER SOUTHWEST AK AND THE AK AND ALEUTIAN RANGES...WHILE A SECOND
FRONT IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS UP THE AKPEN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A COMPLEX PATTERN. ALL AGREE THAT
THE AKPEN LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON...MERGING WITH
THE LOW THAT STARTS THE DAY SOUTH OF THE GULF. THE COMBINED LOW WILL
DEEPEN TO AROUND 948 MB TONIGHT AND IN THE EC PREFERRED SOLUTION SPIN
AROUND IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF UNTIL DISSIPATING SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE BERING AND ANOTHER ALEUTIAN LOW
RACES TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF BY SUN NIGHT. THE FORECAST USES THE
NAM AND GFS IN THE EARLY PERIODS FOR DETAIL...AND THEN BLENDS TOWARD
THE 00Z EC AND SOME HPC GUIDANCE IN THE MID AND LONG RANGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS WILL BE DOMINATED BY GALE AND
STORM FORCE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE
WESTERN HALF AND THROUGH SAT IN THE EASTERN HALF. THESE WINDS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS. DRYING BENEATH A RIDGE WILL AFFECT THE
WESTERN PORTION FRI AND SAT AND THE EASTERN AREA SUN.  A WEATHER
FRONT FROM AN EASTERN RUSSIA LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BERING SUN AND
SUN NIGHT...PRECEDED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND STRONG WINDS AND
FOLLOWED BY SNOW SHOWERS.

FOR SOUTHWEST AK...STRONG WIND THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG WITH
RAIN WILL AFFECT AREAS NEAR THE ALEUTIAN RANGE TODAY WITH SNOW AND
WIND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. SOME RAIN/SNOW SHADOWING CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE. WARMER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AS THE LOWS CONSOLIDATE IN THE GULF. DRYER CONDITIONS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA THU. COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN FRI AND LAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ON NORTHWEST FLOW.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING ABUNDANT
PRECIPITATION ONSHORE TODAY WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL TO EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE AK RANGE. THE LATTER WILL CUT
OFF WHEN THE LOWS CONSOLIDATE IN THE GULF THU AND FLOW BECOMES
NORTHEAST. FROM THAT POINT UNTIL THE GULF LOW DISSIPATES ON
SUN...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO COASTAL SECTIONS AND
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH WARM AIR MOVING INLAND WILL CAUSE MOST OF THIS
TO BE RAIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE FAR WEST...WHILE
WIND AND RAIN WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN BERING. SOUTHWEST AK WILL BE
DRY UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES WITH WIND...AND SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN MON
AND TUE. SOUTHEAST OF THE AK RANGE WILL BE DRY AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 129 132 138 140 141 160 165 171 175 176 179 185
         STORMS 120 125 130 150 155 170 172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS NOV 09

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2009Every storm warning in 2009

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.