Storm Warning 203, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 221219
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-230300-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STORM FORCE 976 MB LOW AT 52N 151W WILL MOVE TO 56N 148W AT 964 MB
SUNDAY EVENING...AND THEN MOVE ONSHORE THE KENAI PENINSULA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER 976 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR 53N 148W ON TUESDAY. 

$$

PKZ351-230300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-230300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING E 40 TO 50 KT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT SHIFTING TO SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 230001
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-231500-
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 968 MB LOW AT 54N 149W WILL MOVE TO 58N 148W SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 974 MB AND MOVE TO 60N 152W MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING INLAND. A 972 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 50N 147W TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-231500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON...WIND BECOMING SW WIND 45 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-231500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING W 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 21 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 231234
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST MON NOV 23 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-240300-
400 AM AKST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 966 MB STORM FORCE LOW AT 58N 150W WILL MOVE INTO THE SW KENAI
PENINSULA AND COOK INLET MONDAY AFTERNOON. A 975 MB LOW WILL MOVE 
TO 56N 148W TUESDAY EVENING...AND THEN TO NEAR 58N 145W AT 980 MB
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
$$

PKZ351-240300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST MON NOV 23 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 TO 45 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT BY LATE MORNING. 
SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-240300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST MON NOV 23 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
525 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
IN THE UPPER-LVLS A TROF IS PRESENT OVER THE BERING/ALEUTIANS AND
OVER THE GULF OF AK...WITH A RIDGE NESTLED IN BETWEEN THROUGH SW AK
AND THE AKPEN. A SHORTWAVE IS TRAVERSING BRISTOL BAY AND MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SUSITNA VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A LOW SOUTH OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND IN THE GULF OF AK IS MOVING EAST AND FILLING. A
SERIES OF STORM-FORCE LOWS ARE IN THE BERING SEA. ONE LOW JUST NORTH
OF ATTU IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AND FILLING. THE OTHER WHICH IS JUST
NORTH OF ATKA IS MOVING EAST AND SLIGHTLY DEEPENING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE SATISFACTORILY CAPTURING THE MAJOR FEATURES ACROSS THE
AOR. THE LOW SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING OVER THE SE GULF DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY. THE WEAKENING LOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND DISSIPATE AS IT SLIPS INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TO THE WEST OF ADAK. THE OTHER LOW TO THE NORTH
OF ADAK THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST AND APPROACH THE COAST OF BRISTOL
BAY ON MONDAY. THE ENERGY FROM THE DISSIPATING LOW OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS LOOKS TO HELP DEEPEN THE TROF IN THE BERING...AND ALSO
SLIGHTLY DEEPEN THE LOW HEADED TOWARDS BRISTOL BAY. A STORM FORCE LOW
IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC...AND MODELS MOVE THIS INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT AND UP TOWARDS THE KENAI PENINSULA ON
MONDAY. NAM APPEARS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN ROTATING IT UP TOO FAR TO
THE EAST. MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE LEANS MORE ON THE GFS THROUGH THE
MID-RANGE PERIOD WITH A TRANSITION TO THE EC FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD
BASED ON SATISFACTORY INITIALIZATION AND CONSISTENCY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND ANCHORAGE BOWL SATURDAY
AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND THEN TAPERING OFF AS THE
MOISTURE FROM THE FEATURE MOVES EAST INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SATURDAY EVENING. A STEADIER PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO OVERSPREAD KODIAK ISLAND AND UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY
ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE STORM-FORCE LOW MOVES INTO THE
ZONE. WARMER AIR WITH THIS LOW WILL TRANSITION SNOW TO RAIN ALONG
COASTAL AREAS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA...EASTERN KODIAK ISLAND AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. EASTERLY 850 MB FLOW WILL HELP TO DOWNSLOPE AND RETARD
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MAT-SU VALLEY ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES OR BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS.

.SOUTHWEST...
SNOW AND RAIN WITH THE LOW ROTATING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BERING. ARCTIC AIR STILL PREDOMINANT OVER THE KUSKOWIM DELTA/VALLEY
AND INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY WHERE SNOW LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONG WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL AID IN BLOWING SNOW...WHICH COMBINDED WITH
THE FALLING SNOW MAY YIELD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE KUSKOWIM
DELTA COAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. IN THE WARMER
AIR FURTHER SOUTH...SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ACROSS
THE AKPEN AS THE SYSTEM WORKS EAST...AND THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW
AGAIN AS THE REMNANT LOW ENTERS BRISTOL BAY ON MONDAY.

.BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE BERING LOWS OVER
THE REGION. STORM-LEVEL WINDS DIMINISHING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MARINE ZONES SATURDAY EVENING AS THE FAR WESTERN BERING LOW WEAKENS
AND DISSIPATES. RAIN/SNOW OVERSPREADING THE PRIBILOFFS...SATURDAY AND
TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE
SOUTH. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AIDING WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH WITH LESS AVAILABLE PRECIPITATION...BELIEVE
CONDITIONS WILL NOT REACH BLIZZARD CRITERIA WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
PRIBILOFFS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
STAYING ACTIVE IN THE GULF AND BERING THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AS
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ESTABLISHES OVER THE AOR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
THE LONG RANGE REMAINS POOR DUE TO TIMING ISSUES WITH SYSTEMS AND
LESS THAN STELLAR MODEL CONSISTENCY. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
HOWEVER AS ARCTIC AIR REMAINS OVER THE INTERIOR OF AK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH...155
MARINE...STORM...352 172 175 176
         GALE...351 412 413 414 150 155 160 165 170 171 179 180 185
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...160 180 185

JAM NOV 09