Small Craft Advisory 956, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2009

CHANGING PATTERN CONTINUES DUE TO STRONG STORM MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BERING. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS PRIBILOFS SPCLY PASN AS TIGHT LOW
CENTER MOVES BY TO THEIR SOUTH. WARMER AIR AND RAIN FORECAST EARLIER
TRIED BUT COULDN'T MATERALIZE DUE TO STORMS SOUTHERN TRACK. AS WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT SNOW FALL SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AGAIN AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING NOW OUT FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST FROM THE WESTERN CAPES
OF ZONE 161 NORTH ACROSS NUNIVAK ISLAND. LATEST GFS RUN MAINTAINES THE
STORMS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES TO WESTERN BRISTOL BAY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW
THEN WEAKENS FASTER AND IT MOVES INTO KUSKOKWIM BAY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SLOW MOVEMENT AND TRACK OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN A PRETTY GOOD
SNOWFALL ACROSS BOTH ZONES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

GULF LOW HANDELED PRETTY WELL BY MODELS BUT THE NEXT ONE THAT ROLLS UP
ON THUESDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE. LASTEST EC RUN OR THE PERVIOUS GFS RUN
ARE USED BY THE GRID DESKS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING ZONE 155 AND  WESTERN CAPES OF 161.
MARINE...STORM AREAS 176..172..175.
GALE AREAS 150..155..160..165..180..170..171..185..179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

PERCY NOV 09