Storm Warning 17, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 171214
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-180300-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 961 MB LOW 40 NM SOUTHWEST OF NOME WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY. A 987 MB
LOW WILL DEVELOP 130 NM NORTHWEST OF ADAK SAT AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN 
TO 995 MB 225 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND MON MORNING. 

$$

PKZ150-180300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 17 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-180300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-180300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-180300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-180300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-180300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-180300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-180300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-180300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-180300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-180300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2009

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-180300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN HANDLING THE OVERALL PATTERN AND MAJOR
FEATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO ARISE SUNDAY
CONCERNING THE LOW MOVING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA...AS WELL AS HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC AND BERING SEA. THE GFS WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL
THIS MORNING DUE TO CONTINUED SHORT TERM CONSISTENCY. REGARDING THE
LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF ON SUNDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SINGLE LOW CENTER. THE GFS/NAM
SOLUTION IS SLOWER AND WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A SLOWER SOLUTION.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN RUSSIA WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. A SECONDARY
UPPER LOW IS FORMING ON THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH THIS MORNING SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA.  THE MAIN JET CORE IS WELL SOUTH OF
ALASKA...EXTENDING ACROSS THE PACIFIC BETWEEN 30N AND 40N. MULTIPLE
JET STREAKS ARE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOVING NORTHWARD
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH MAINLAND ALASKA. ELSEWHERE A 955 MB LOW 150 NM
SOUTH OF SAND POINT IS MOVING NORTHWARD. THE SURFACE LOW IS BEING
FUELED IN PART BY FAVORABLE SUPERPOSITION BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
JET STREAKS.  THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRENGTHENING ONCE
AGAIN THIS MORNING ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
AS THE LOW SOUTH OF SAND POINT CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD EXPECT
WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TONIGHT.  WINDS THROUGH
CHANNELED AND HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE COMPARABLE TO OR PERHAPS
STRONGER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY NIGHT (EXCEEDING 100 MPH).
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN IMPACT LOCATIONS ALONG THE
GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR INLAND AREAS.

.SOUTHWEST...
AS THE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS MORNING STRONG WINDS AND
RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD. AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTH AND COLD
AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW.  BY TONIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHTER WINDS
AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.

.BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
CENTER IMPACTING THE AK PENINSULA LIFTS NORTHWARD. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN THE PRIBILOFS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...AFTER WHICH WINDS AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO ABATE. A SERIES
OF WEAK SURFACE DISTURBANCES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT MODERATE WINDS AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADA BY EARLY WEEK...SHIFTING THE CORE
OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST AS WELL. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN
SPREADING BACK INTO MAINLAND ALASKA FROM THE BERING...RESULTING IN
MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT
WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 195
         HIGH WIND WARNING 101 125 135 161 171
MARINE...STORM WARNING 120 130 132 138 150 351 352
         GALE WARNING 121 125 129 140 141 155 160 165 170 171 172 179
                      180 185 412 413 414
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 179 412 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NRH/JCA JAN 09