Small Craft Advisory 64, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT START TO RUN INTO
CONFLICTING SOLUTION OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
ON SUNDAY. NAM MODEL APPEARS TO BE MOVING THE NEXT STORM APPROACHING
THE GULF FASTER THAN THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS. GFS APPEARS TO HAVE
THE BEST OVERALL SOLUTION.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE INTENSE 950 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVED MOVED ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND WESTERN BRISTOL BAY TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVED
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE WESTERN GULF. STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND A GOOD PORTION OF
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. AREAS OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVED
THROUGH BRISTOL BAY AND KODIAK ISLAND THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
SOUTHCENTRAL AK AND THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON.

UPPER AIR. THE MAIN CORE OF STRONG SOUTH WINDS REMAIN OVER THE GULF
AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA, BUT IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD. AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SIBERIA IS BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE BERING
SEA. ANOTHER UPPER LOW NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM IS MOVING NORTH WITH THE
SURFACE SYSTEM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE SURFACE LOW NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN MOVE INTO THE
BEAUFORT SEA NEAR BARROW SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA, KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND COOK INLET WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE EAST AND BECOME
STATIONARY OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
WILL MOVE NORTH TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND SUNDAY.

SOUTHCENTRAL AK...RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH FROM
THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS IN
CHANNELED AREAS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE RAIN
AND WIND WILL MOVE ONTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME
SOUTHWEST AS THE INTENSE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST WILL END THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR OFF
THE BERING SEA WILL BEGIN DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR WEST OF DILLINGHAM AND
SLEETMUTE. AREAS OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE
SUNDAY.

BERING SEA...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL END OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLAND
THIS EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE BERING SEA. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONES 101, 125, 135 AND 161.
         BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ZONES 155 AND 195.
MARINE...GALE 125, 130, 132, 138, 155, 165, 170, 172, 179, 180, 185
         STORM 120, 150, 160,
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM JAN 09