Storm Warning 168, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 092304
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-101400-
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 967 MB LOW NEAR 52N 158W MOVES 58N 171W AT 963 MB SATURDAY MORNING.
THE WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA TONIGHT. THIS FRONT THE STALLS AND WEAKENS THROUGH SUNDAY. 

$$

PKZ351-101400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-101400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 TO 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 20 TO 28 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 26 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL INITIALIZATIONS REASONABLE. THE GFS CONTINUES WITH THE FASTEST
MOVEMENT ON DEVELOPING WAVE APPROACHING THE AK PEN FRIDAY. EC/NAM/GEM
LAG A LITTLE BEHIND. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TEND TO SUPPORT THE GFS
OPERATIONAL SOLUTION...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN THAT WAY ON THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...THE MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE IS THE FORECAST INTENSITY OF WINDS
AND QPF OVER SOUTHEAST EXPOSURES OF SOUTHCENTRAL/NORTH GULF OF ALASKA
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF MAKES
SOME EASTWARD HEADWAY TONIGHT...THEN PUSHES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
SAT AS DEVELOPING NORTH PACK LOW MOVES NORTH AND GULF FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEASTERLY. STRONG GRADIENTS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE ENHANCED
WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER JET SUPPORT. SO SHOULD SEE
STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL...REACHING WARNING LEVELS IN
ZONE 101 TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS IN SOUTHCENTRAL
FRI BEFORE BIG WINDS HIT FRI NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF STORM CENTER
HEADING TOWARD THE AK PEN. THIS CENTER LIKELY TO BE SOUTH OF SAND
POINT FRI EVENING AND INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA EARLY SAT MORNING.
WARNING LEVEL WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER KODIAK BEGINNING FRI AFTERNOON.
STRONG WINDS LIKELY TO SPREAD TO SOUTHCENTRAL WITH WARNING LEVELS IN
ZONES 101 AND 125 FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING. GALES AND STORMS LIKELY
OVER COASTAL MARINES AS WELL. GRADIENTS AND ASSOCIATED WINDS OVER
MUCH OF THE EAST WEAKENS LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS LOW MOVES
NORTH IN THE BERING SEA AND WEAKENS. ALONG WITH WINDS...QPF WITH DEEP
MOISTURE FETCH IS A CONCERN FOR SE EXPOSURES OF THE GULF FRI AND SAT.
RIVERS ARE FAIRLY LOW NOW...BUT WILL  WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP
FRI.

.WEST...OCCLUDED 970S LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS MOVES
SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEAKENS. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT
MOVES OVER SW ALASKA TONIGHT AND WEAKENS. DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC
STORM MOVES SOUTH OF SAND POINT FRI EVENING AND INTO THE EASTERN
BERING SEA ON SAT MORNING. THIS CENTER THEN MOVES TO THE NORTH BERING
SEA SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. STRONG WINDS OVER THE
ALEUTIANS/AK PEN...AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH AS
ALEUTIAN LOW WEAKENS AND DRIFTS NORTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRI
AND FRI NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF NORTH PACIFIC STORM CENTER. WARNING
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH GAPS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND EXPOSED CAPES
IN 161 LIKELY FRI NIGHT AND SAT. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH
OF SW ALASKA THROUGH SAT EVENING THEN WEAKEN SAT NIGHT AS LOW WEAKENS
OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. RAIN OVER SW ALASKA WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INLAND. RAIN INCREASES AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON
OVER BRISTOL BAY AND AK PEN AND SPREADS NORTH FRI NIGHT AS FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH STORM MOVES NORTH.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
IT APPEARS MOST OF THE STATE MAY FINALLY CATCH A BREAK FROM THE
ACTIVE WEATHER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STRONG RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVER THE STATE AND THE LOW IN THE ALEUTIANS DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OR NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD
TO MOSTLY OFFSHORE FLOW LEADING TO MUCH DRIER WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALASKA...AND A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 TONIGHT. HIGH WIND WATCHES 101 125
         AND 171.
MARINE...STORMS 139,132,138,140,150, AND 160.
         GALES 120,125,129,141,155 165 170 180 AND 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC OCT 09