Gale Warning 723, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 090452 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...AMENDED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
850 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2009

AMENDED AREA 160 AND 180

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-091400-
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 961 MB LOW 320 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOVES TO 180
NM NORTHWEST OF COLD BAY AND WEAKENS TO 969 MB FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW
THEN MOVES TO 80 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AT 970 MB
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A 987 MB LOW MOVES TO 270 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-091400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2009

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 27 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-091400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 35 KT WEST OF COLD BAY THIS EVENING.
SEAS 13 FT...EXCEPT SEAS 16 FT WEST OF COLD BAY. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 20 FT EXCEPT 15 FT WEST OF COLD BAY. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT EXCEPT 14 FT WEST OF COLD BAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-091400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
850 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2009

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO NE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 60 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ165-091400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT EAST OF COLD BAY...OTHERWISE NW WIND 20
KT. SEAS 9 FT EXCEPT 7 FT WEST OF COLD BAY. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-091400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
850 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2009

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-091400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
50 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 20 FT EXCEPT 10 FT BERING SIDE. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT 5
FT BERING SIDE. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT EXCEPT 7 FT BERING SIDE. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT 8 FT BERING SIDE. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT EXCEPT 7 FT BERING SIDE. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 6 FT BERING SIDE. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT 7 FT BERING SIDE.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT EXCEPT 6 FT BERING SIDE.

$$

PKZ171-091400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-091400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-091400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-091400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-091400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2009

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-091400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL INITIALIZATIONS REASONABLE. THE GFS CONTINUES WITH THE FASTEST
MOVEMENT ON DEVELOPING WAVE APPROACHING THE AK PEN FRIDAY. EC/NAM/GEM
LAG A LITTLE BEHIND. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TEND TO SUPPORT THE GFS
OPERATIONAL SOLUTION...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN THAT WAY ON THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...THE MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE IS THE FORECAST INTENSITY OF WINDS
AND QPF OVER SOUTHEAST EXPOSURES OF SOUTHCENTRAL/NORTH GULF OF ALASKA
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF MAKES
SOME EASTWARD HEADWAY TONIGHT...THEN PUSHES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
SAT AS DEVELOPING NORTH PACK LOW MOVES NORTH AND GULF FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEASTERLY. STRONG GRADIENTS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE ENHANCED
WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER JET SUPPORT. SO SHOULD SEE
STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL...REACHING WARNING LEVELS IN
ZONE 101 TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS IN SOUTHCENTRAL
FRI BEFORE BIG WINDS HIT FRI NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF STORM CENTER
HEADING TOWARD THE AK PEN. THIS CENTER LIKELY TO BE SOUTH OF SAND
POINT FRI EVENING AND INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA EARLY SAT MORNING.
WARNING LEVEL WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER KODIAK BEGINNING FRI AFTERNOON.
STRONG WINDS LIKELY TO SPREAD TO SOUTHCENTRAL WITH WARNING LEVELS IN
ZONES 101 AND 125 FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING. GALES AND STORMS LIKELY
OVER COASTAL MARINES AS WELL. GRADIENTS AND ASSOCIATED WINDS OVER
MUCH OF THE EAST WEAKENS LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS LOW MOVES
NORTH IN THE BERING SEA AND WEAKENS. ALONG WITH WINDS...QPF WITH DEEP
MOISTURE FETCH IS A CONCERN FOR SE EXPOSURES OF THE GULF FRI AND SAT.
RIVERS ARE FAIRLY LOW NOW...BUT WILL  WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP
FRI.

.WEST...OCCLUDED 970S LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS MOVES
SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEAKENS. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT
MOVES OVER SW ALASKA TONIGHT AND WEAKENS. DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC
STORM MOVES SOUTH OF SAND POINT FRI EVENING AND INTO THE EASTERN
BERING SEA ON SAT MORNING. THIS CENTER THEN MOVES TO THE NORTH BERING
SEA SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. STRONG WINDS OVER THE
ALEUTIANS/AK PEN...AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH AS
ALEUTIAN LOW WEAKENS AND DRIFTS NORTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRI
AND FRI NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF NORTH PACIFIC STORM CENTER. WARNING
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH GAPS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND EXPOSED CAPES
IN 161 LIKELY FRI NIGHT AND SAT. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH
OF SW ALASKA THROUGH SAT EVENING THEN WEAKEN SAT NIGHT AS LOW WEAKENS
OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. RAIN OVER SW ALASKA WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INLAND. RAIN INCREASES AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON
OVER BRISTOL BAY AND AK PEN AND SPREADS NORTH FRI NIGHT AS FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH STORM MOVES NORTH.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
IT APPEARS MOST OF THE STATE MAY FINALLY CATCH A BREAK FROM THE
ACTIVE WEATHER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STRONG RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVER THE STATE AND THE LOW IN THE ALEUTIANS DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OR NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD
TO MOSTLY OFFSHORE FLOW LEADING TO MUCH DRIER WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALASKA...AND A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 TONIGHT. HIGH WIND WATCHES 101 125
         AND 171.
MARINE...STORMS 139,132,138,140,150, AND 160.
         GALES 120,125,129,141,155 165 170 180 AND 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC OCT 09