Storm Warning 167, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 082312
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-091400-
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A STRONG WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WEAKENS FRIDAY
AND MOVES NORTH. A 961 MB LOW NEAR 51N 158W FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOVES TO
57N 166W AND WEAKENS TO 969 MB FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF SATURDAY.

$$

PKZ351-091400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2009

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 TO 15 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-091400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2009

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
27 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 15 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 091100
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-100200-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 963 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW NEAR 52N 158W FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOVES TO
NEAR 55N 162W FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF SATURDAY.
$$

PKZ351-100200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2009

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 TO 40 KT TOWARD
MORNING. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-100200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2009

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT INCREASING TO 45 TO 55 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 TO 60 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 092304
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-101400-
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 967 MB LOW NEAR 52N 158W MOVES 58N 171W AT 963 MB SATURDAY MORNING.
THE WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA TONIGHT. THIS FRONT THE STALLS AND WEAKENS THROUGH SUNDAY. 

$$

PKZ351-101400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-101400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 TO 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 20 TO 28 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 26 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 101137
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 10 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-110200-
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 10 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 961 MB LOW NEAR 58N 169W MOVES NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE BERING SEA
TODAY. THE WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT THEN STALLS AND
WEAKENS THROUGH SUNDAY. 
$$

PKZ351-110200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 10 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-110200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 10 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT SUBSIDING
TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT WED OCT 7 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS/ECMWF/NAM MSLP AND MOISTURE INITIALIZATIONS
AND FORECAST TREND THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON ARE REASONABLE AND IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON AS THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF DEVELOPING STORM
APPROACHING THE AK PEN FRI EVENING.

.UPPER LEVELS...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MAINLAND WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN RUSSIA TO OVER THE NE PACIFIC. TROUGH CONTAINS TWO MAIN
CENTERS...A WEAKENING ONE OVER THE BERING SEA AND A STRONGER CENTER
SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. COLD ADVECTION IS EVIDENT SOUTH OF
THIS LOW WITH THE PRESENCE OF OPEN CELL CUMULUS. A STRONG WESTERLY
JET IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN 150-165W.

RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND MAINLAND SHIFTS TO BETWEEN 130-140W SAT. LOW
CENTER OVER THE BERING SEA WEAKENS AND MOVES SW AS LOW CENTER SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS MOVES TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA ON FRI AFTERNOON.
SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC LIKELY AS COLD ADVECTION
DIGS OUT THE BASE. DEVELOPING CENTER MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE AK PEN
ON FRI EVENING AND OVER WESTERN BRISTOL BAY EARLY SAT. EXPECT STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF FRI NIGHT...SPREADING TO THE
MAINLAND SAT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...ONLY A FEW OVERALL ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH
THRU TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INTENSIFIES IN THE MID LEVELS. OCCLUDED
FRONT APPROACHING THE AK PEN MOVES INLAND OVER WESTERN ALASKA TONIGHT
AS TRAILING COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT THEN
WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS EAST THU NIGHT. FREEZING LEVELS WILL INCREASE
AND REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH GENERALLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY RAIN...EXCEPT OCCASIONALLY MIXED AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH TONIGHT...SO WILL SEE INCREASING WINDS
OVER THE GULF AND STRONG GAP FLOWS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. A DEVELOPING
LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES TO NEAR CHIGNIK EARLY SAT AND WILL
BRING INCREASED RAINS AND WINDS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND STORMS ACROSS
THE GULF. MAY SEE WINDS APPROACHING WARNING LEVELS LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT IN ZONES 101/125.

.WEST...LOW OVER THE BERING SEA IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AND MOVING SW.
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING INTO BRISTOL BAY THIS AFTERNOON IS SPREADING
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SW ALASKA TONIGHT. 970S LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THIS
AFTERNOON MOVES NORTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THU AND INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA AND WEAKENS FRI EVENING. ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AK PEN AND SW ALASKA THU MORNING...THEN WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
EAST. DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES TO NEAR CHIGNIK
EARLY SAT AND WILL BRING INCREASED RAINS AND WINDS ACROSS SW ALASKA
LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. MAY SEE WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS THROUGH
GAPS IN THE ALEUTIANS RANGE AND BRISTOL BAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130,132,150,155,165,170,171,176,179,AND 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC OCT 09