Storm Warning 160, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 242343 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2009

CORRECTED ZONE 141

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-251400-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 983 MB LOW 232 NM SW OF KODIAK WILL MOVE TO 100 NM SE OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND AND WEAKEN TO 988 MB BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IT THEN MOVES INTO
THE YUKON ON SATURDAY.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-251400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE
WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT SE 25 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...WEST OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...W WIND 40 KT. EAST OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W WIND 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-251400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.  SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD...E WIND 40 KT IN THE EVENING
BECOMING 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SEAS 10 FT.  RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SEAS TO 7 FT SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS SOUTH OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-251400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
50 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE IN THE EVENING. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-251400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-251400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 25
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 60 KT IN THE EVENING. EAST OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS...SOUTHEAST WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. GUSTS TO 55 KT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-251400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2009

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-251400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-251400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS 7 FT EXCEPT 2 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-251400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
POSITIONING AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
THE LOW OVER THE BERING SEA. THE UKMET IS A LITTLE WEAKER ON PRESSURE
WITH WESTERN BERING LOW AND WITH THE LOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE GFS AND NAM ARE BOTH ACCEPTABLE SOLUTIONS FOR
THE FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH 72 HOURS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE LOW SOUTH OF ALASKA PENINSULA IS
BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO KODIAK TODAY...OVER AN INCH SINCE 4AM/ WITH
STEADY RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUND. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING GENERALLY
TO 40 MPH OVER KODIAK AND THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY. GALES ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE GULF AND BARREN ISLANDS.

IN THE WEST RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN BERING, THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
WINDS ACROSS THOSE REGIONS HAVE BEEN GUSTY AROUND 40MPH. RAIN HAS
BEEN STAYED EAST OF DILLINGHAM IN BRISTOL BAY WITH SNOW/RAIN AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...A MODERATE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL
MOVE TO EAST OF CORDOVA BY FRI EVENING.  WITH THIS LOW EXPECT RAIN
WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY FROM EASTERN BRISTOL
BAY AND KODIAK TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. EXPECT
GALES IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW WITH STORMS NEAR THE NORTH GULF COAST
THIS EVENING AND GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOW
FRIDAY.

THE LOW OVER BERING SEA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX EXPECTED WITH THIS LOW WITH GALE WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL MOVE INTO GULF ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO CANADA ON MONDAY. A STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING STORM FORCE WINDS TO
THE AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 120.
         GALES 130 132 138 140 150 155 170 172 175
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JWP SEP 09