Gale Warning 593, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 242305
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-251400-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1007 MB LOW AT 56N 178E WILL MOVE TO 54N 174W AT 1004 MB FRI
AFTERNOON. THE LOW THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AT 57N 157W SAT AFTERNOON AT 1008 MB. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-251400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2009

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NORTH OF 56N...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY
MIDNIGHT. SOUTH OF 56N...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW WIND 30 KT BY
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-251400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2009

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...WEST OF 174W...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
EAST OF 174W...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NORTH OF 58N...NE WIND 20 KT. SOUTH OF 58N...NE WIND 35 KT
BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-251400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2009

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING NORTH 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-251400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2009

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT WEST
OF 169W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.FRI...WEST OF 168W...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. EAST OF 168W...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 251155
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 25 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-260200-
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 25 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 54N 173W WILL MOVE TO 56N 156W SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH LITTLE CHANCE IN PRESSURE. IT WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA SATURDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL BERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. A 974 MB LOW WILL
MOVE TO 55N 170E SATURDAY NIGHT.
$$

PKZ411-260200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 25 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT...BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-260200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 25 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT NE 35 KT SOUTH OF 58N DURING THE
MORNING. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-260200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 25 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT...BECOMING N 35 KT DURING THE LATE MORNING.
SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-260200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 25 2009

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT NW
30 KT EAST OF 166W DURING THE MORNING. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

389 
FZAK62 PAFC 252254
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 25 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-261400-
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 25 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE BERING SEA...

A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 53N 170W WILL MOVE TO 54N 150W AT 1008 MB SAT
NIGHT. A 989 MB LOW NEAR 51N 167E SAT AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 57N 170E
AT 975 MB SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-261400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 25 2009

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING SW AND INCREASING TO 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-261400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 25 2009

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-261400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 25 2009

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-261400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 25 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 25 KT TOWARD THE MORNING. SEAS
8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
215 PM AKDT WED SEP 23 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE GFS WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...AS THE NAM IS A SLOW OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO
PROGRESSION OF THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW THAT WILL MOVE TOWARDS AND
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE OTHER AREA OF INTEREST IS A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE FAR NORTHWEST BERING SEA THAT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEASTTOWARDS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN AKPEN...ARRIVING SOMETIME FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS MODEL WAS PREFERRED WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL. PAST
SATURDAY MORNING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE AS THIS SECONDARY LOW
MOVES INTO THE GULF. THE GFS AND EC HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THIS LOW ON SUNDAY UP TO A POINT
BETWEEN KODIAK AND MIDDLETON ISLAND MUCH CLOSER TO
SOUTHCENTRAL...WHILE THE EC BRINGS THIS LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.
THE OO UTC EC WAS USED WITH THE SOUTHERN TRACK PREFERRED GIVEN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WITH THE GFS OPERATIONAL
THE FARTHEST NORTH SOLUTION. THIS REPRESENTED LITTLE CHANGE FROM
EXISTING GRIDS IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE...SO THOSE GRIDS WERE LEFT
ALONE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE BIG WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY IS A 982
MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF SUPER TYPHOON CHOI-WAN...LOCATED ABOUT 350
MILES SOUTH OF UNALASKA ISLAND. THIS LOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS
THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...AND IS CO-LOCATED WITH A MID-LEVEL LOW.
ANOTHER STACKED LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY BETWEEN
MCGRATH AND NORTON SOUND. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING SNOW CHANGING TO
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KUSKOKWIM RIVER VALLEY
TODAY. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHCENTRAL...PROVIDING FOR
A BEAUTIFUL DAY FROM THE MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA VALLEYS DOWN THROUGH
THE KENAI PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND...AND EXTENDING OVER INTO THE
PARTS OF THE BRISTOL BAY REGION. A 1018 MB LOW IS LOCATED EAST OF THE
NORTHEASTERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA...AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BERING SEA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...

A SHORTWAVE EXITING THE COPPER RIVER BASIN BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
IMPROVE CONDITIONS THERE DRASTICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINLY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ELSEWHERE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALASKA RANGE...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON THE WEATHER IN THE
SUSITNA VALLEY EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW CLOUDS AS A SHORTWAVE STAYS JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY NICE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO
UNTIL A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING GULF LOW BEGINS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GULF ON THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND THE APPROACHING STRONG
FRONT...STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A BARRIER JET INCREASES
IN STRENGTH LATE THURSDAY AND LASTS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN EXCEPT THERE
COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AS COLDER AIR IS SCOURED OUT. AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST OF
ANCHORAGE IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...WE SHOULD START TO SEE RAIN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON THE BACK SIDE FOR ANCHORAGE BEFORE MOVING OUT
FRIDAY NIGHT...BEING REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.

SOUTHWEST...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT OUT THIS EVENING
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION.
THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE ALONG THE COAST OF THE NORTHWEST DELTA REGION
WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR THURSDAY...EXPECT INCREASINGLY
OFFSHORE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE
KUSKOKWIM RIVER VALLEY FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN FOR THE EASTERN BRISTOL BAY ZONE
MOSTLY FROM KING SALMON EAST...WITH UPSLOPE SHOWERS FORMING ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ON FRIDAY ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. ANOTHER IN A
SERIES OF LOWS MOVES INTO THE DELTA REGION AS WELL FOR FRIDAY...SO A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS APPEARS TO RETURN BEFORE QUICKLY
MOVING UP THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT.

AKPEN/ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...

GALES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AKPEN COASTAL ZONES AND
ALEUTIANS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE GULF. ATTENTION THEN
FOCUSES ON ANOTHER LOW THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BERING
SEA THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
LOW SHOULD BRING GALE-FORCE WINDS AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE
REGION. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AKPEN HEADED TOWARDS THE WESTERN GULF.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO
THE TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. THE GFS OPERATIONAL APPEARS TO BE A NORTHERLY
OUTLIER...KEEPING IT NEAR THE COAST...WHILE THE EC AND MANY GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF AND WELL AWAY FROM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO EXISTING GRIDS AS THEY
DEPICT THE SOUTHERN TRACK PRETTY WELL. ON THE WEST SIDE...MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINNING
TO AFFECT THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVING EAST ACROSS THE BERING SEA OVER THE FOLLOWING DAYS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...125 130 132 138 140 150 155 170 171 172
         STORM WARNING...120
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

CC SEP 09