Storm Warning 156, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 152315
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-161400-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 986 MB LOW 415 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL STRENGTHEN TO 
976 MB AS IT MOVES TO 175 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WED AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN TO 983 MB AS IT MOVES TO NEAR SITKINAK 
THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-161400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS BUILDING TO
11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-161400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-161400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE THIS EVENING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-161400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-161400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE THIS EVENING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-161400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-161400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
BUILDING TO 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-161400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-161400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
140 PM AKDT MON SEP 14 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE CLOSED LOW NEAR 47N 150W
CONTINUES TO DIG EAST SOUTHEASTWARD CAUSING AMPLIFICATION OF THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE...WHICH IS BUILDING BACK OVER TOP OF THE CLOSED
LOW INTO MAINLAND ALASKA. THERE ARE MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER CENTER...MAINLY ON THE
EAST TO NORTH SIDE...ROTATING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF AND THEN
ROTATING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. ONE SUCH WAVE IS MOVING
FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGING
TO THE NORTH IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE INTERIOR.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN BERING IS DRIVING A
GALE FORCE SURFACE LOW EASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS NEAR ZONAL JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
AND THEN DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND AROUND THE UPPER LOW...AND THIS
SYSTEM WILL TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL BUT THEN QUICKLY
DIVERGE ON LOW TRACK. WITH THE ALEUTIAN LOW THE DIFFERENCES ARE
PRIMARILY IN SPEED OF THE LOW. IN THE EAST THERE ARE POSITIONAL
DIFFERENCES AS THE LOW MOVES TO KODIAK ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY. IN
BOTH CASES THE GFS SOLUTION IS A NICE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE
OTHER SOLUTIONS AND MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
THUS...NEW FORECAST WILL BE BASED OFF THE GFS MODEL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AS THE UPPER SHORT-WAVE CONTINUES TO ROTATE
WESTWARD TONIGHT COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL WILL CLEAR OUT FROM EAST TO
WEST. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL BOTTOM OUT AND THEN
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF AS AMPLIFYING DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE CAUSES ACCELERATION OF SOUTHERLY JET BETWEEN THE LOW AND RIDGE.

ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT TO A SHORT-WAVE EXITING THE BOTTOM OF
THE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING AND BECOMING THE PRIMARY LOW CENTER
AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF TUESDAY NIGHT. A BREAK AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ON
TUESDAY. RAIN AND GALES WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WILL MOSTLY HANG UP ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY AS STRONG EASTERLIES
PRODUCE DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION ON THE LEE SIDE
OF THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY...BUT
THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT WIND DIRECTIONS NEAR KODIAK. THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD AS THE ALEUTIAN SYSTEM
ROTATES UNDERNEATH IT. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST UNDER BROAD SOUTHEAST FLOW...ALTHOUGH AS EMBEDDED
SHORT0-WAVES CROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS INLAND
AS WELL.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...RAIN OR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SHORT-WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS BRISTOL BAY
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THIS FROM THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TO KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THERE WILL
THEN BE A BREAK TUESDAY BEFORE A GULF LOW BRINGS MORE RAIN/SHOWERS
BACK IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL ACTUALLY
TRACK TO THE VICINITY OF BRISTOL BAY WEDNESDAY BY THURSDAY...SO
SHOWERY REGIME WILL PERSIST INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL BEGIN TO TAKE MORE
OF A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK LATE TUESDAY AS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF AND THE LOWS BECOME
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BEGIN TO FUJIWARA AROUND EACH OTHER. AS THE LOW
EXITS INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC WEDNESDAY BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
ENSURE ACROSS THE BERING SEA REGION AND PERSIST THROUGH WEEKS
END AS A RIDGE SETS UP UPSTREAM.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER
ALASKA AND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WHILE A
STRONG RIDGE OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND THE WESTERN BERING BLOCKS
THE WESTERLIES FROM BRINGING ANY STORMS IN FROM ASIA OR THE WEST
PACIFIC. THEREFORE...CLOUDY AND/OR SHOWERY REGIME WILL PERSIST
FROM THE EASTERN BERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. CONFIDENCE
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN AMPLIFYING
PATTERN WHICH COULD BRING A DEEP LOW INTO THE GULF AND A TROPICAL
SYSTEM UP TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...176.
         GALE WARNING...120 130 132 172 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB SEP 09