Storm Warning 155, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 151156
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-160200-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 983 MB LOW 150 NM NORTH OF KISKA WILL WEAKEN TO 992 MB AS IT MOVES
TO 210 NM SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR BY WED AFTERNOON. THE LOW THEN
DISSIPATES IN THE NORTH PACIFIC BY THU MORNING. BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN WED AND WED NIGHT.
$$

PKZ150-160200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-160200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-160200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-160200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-160200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. STRONGEST WINDS AND SEAS WEST OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-160200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-160200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-160200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT...EXCEPT 20 KT EAST OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS
BUILDING TO 15 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT EAST OF SEGUAM ISLAND. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-160200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 50 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS
18 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-160200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-160200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-160200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 152311
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-161400-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 988 MB LOW 35 NM NORTHEAST OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 200 NM 
SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WED MORNING AND THEN DISSIPATE WED AFTERNOON.
BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH 
THU. A NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA 
TO NEAR SITKINAK THU AFTERNOON AT 983 MB.

$$

PKZ150-161400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-161400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N WIND 15 KT BY LATE MORNING. 
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-161400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-161400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N WIND 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-161400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-161400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-161400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-161400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...WEST OF ATKA...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT. EAST OF ATKA...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-161400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT EXCEPT 20 FT WEST OF 180. HIGHEST ON PACIFIC SIDE. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-161400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT DIMINISHING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-161400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-161400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 15 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
140 PM AKDT MON SEP 14 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE CLOSED LOW NEAR 47N 150W
CONTINUES TO DIG EAST SOUTHEASTWARD CAUSING AMPLIFICATION OF THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE...WHICH IS BUILDING BACK OVER TOP OF THE CLOSED
LOW INTO MAINLAND ALASKA. THERE ARE MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER CENTER...MAINLY ON THE
EAST TO NORTH SIDE...ROTATING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF AND THEN
ROTATING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. ONE SUCH WAVE IS MOVING
FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGING
TO THE NORTH IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE INTERIOR.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN BERING IS DRIVING A
GALE FORCE SURFACE LOW EASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS NEAR ZONAL JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
AND THEN DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND AROUND THE UPPER LOW...AND THIS
SYSTEM WILL TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL BUT THEN QUICKLY
DIVERGE ON LOW TRACK. WITH THE ALEUTIAN LOW THE DIFFERENCES ARE
PRIMARILY IN SPEED OF THE LOW. IN THE EAST THERE ARE POSITIONAL
DIFFERENCES AS THE LOW MOVES TO KODIAK ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY. IN
BOTH CASES THE GFS SOLUTION IS A NICE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE
OTHER SOLUTIONS AND MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
THUS...NEW FORECAST WILL BE BASED OFF THE GFS MODEL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AS THE UPPER SHORT-WAVE CONTINUES TO ROTATE
WESTWARD TONIGHT COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL WILL CLEAR OUT FROM EAST TO
WEST. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL BOTTOM OUT AND THEN
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF AS AMPLIFYING DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE CAUSES ACCELERATION OF SOUTHERLY JET BETWEEN THE LOW AND RIDGE.

ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT TO A SHORT-WAVE EXITING THE BOTTOM OF
THE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING AND BECOMING THE PRIMARY LOW CENTER
AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF TUESDAY NIGHT. A BREAK AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ON
TUESDAY. RAIN AND GALES WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WILL MOSTLY HANG UP ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY AS STRONG EASTERLIES
PRODUCE DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION ON THE LEE SIDE
OF THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY...BUT
THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT WIND DIRECTIONS NEAR KODIAK. THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD AS THE ALEUTIAN SYSTEM
ROTATES UNDERNEATH IT. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST UNDER BROAD SOUTHEAST FLOW...ALTHOUGH AS EMBEDDED
SHORT0-WAVES CROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS INLAND
AS WELL.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...RAIN OR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SHORT-WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS BRISTOL BAY
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THIS FROM THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TO KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THERE WILL
THEN BE A BREAK TUESDAY BEFORE A GULF LOW BRINGS MORE RAIN/SHOWERS
BACK IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL ACTUALLY
TRACK TO THE VICINITY OF BRISTOL BAY WEDNESDAY BY THURSDAY...SO
SHOWERY REGIME WILL PERSIST INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL BEGIN TO TAKE MORE
OF A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK LATE TUESDAY AS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF AND THE LOWS BECOME
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BEGIN TO FUJIWARA AROUND EACH OTHER. AS THE LOW
EXITS INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC WEDNESDAY BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
ENSURE ACROSS THE BERING SEA REGION AND PERSIST THROUGH WEEKS
END AS A RIDGE SETS UP UPSTREAM.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER
ALASKA AND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WHILE A
STRONG RIDGE OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND THE WESTERN BERING BLOCKS
THE WESTERLIES FROM BRINGING ANY STORMS IN FROM ASIA OR THE WEST
PACIFIC. THEREFORE...CLOUDY AND/OR SHOWERY REGIME WILL PERSIST
FROM THE EASTERN BERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. CONFIDENCE
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN AMPLIFYING
PATTERN WHICH COULD BRING A DEEP LOW INTO THE GULF AND A TROPICAL
SYSTEM UP TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...176.
         GALE WARNING...120 130 132 172 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB SEP 09