Storm Warning 148, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 092313
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-101400-
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 980 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 30 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA THU
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW THEN WEAKENS TO 987 MB AS IT MOVES TO 360 NM
NORTH OF SHEMYA FRI AFTERNOON. A 974 MB LOW 500 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK 
MOVES TO 130 NM SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING FRI AFTERNOON.  

$$

PKZ150-101400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-101400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-101400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-101400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
STRONGER GUSTS 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-101400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-101400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND 
PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-101400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND 
PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-101400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE 10 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-101400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.

.THU...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-101400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-101400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-101400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM OVER THE BERING SEA
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING.  WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW EXISTS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW OVER THE MAINLAND...WHILE A
STRONGER NORTHERLY JET PROVIDES UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS.  AT THE SURFACE A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS UP THROUGH KODIAK ISLAND.  THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
FORMING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA.  OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS A
SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING.  AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IT WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW FURTHER SOUTH...CAUSING IT TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS IT
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON THURSDAY.  EXPECT THIS SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN TO MOVE THE SURFACE RIDE EASTWARD...ALLOWING THE REMNANTS OF
TYPHOON DUJUAN TO MOVE INTO THE ALASKA FORECAST REGION ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY.  IN THE EAST THE
SOLUTIONS DIVERGED ON THE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE UP FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC ON THURSDAY.  GFS HAD A SLOWER SOLUTION WHILE ECMWF APPEARED
TO BE TOO FAST...UKMET PROVIDED A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND AND WAS CHOSEN
FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. OUT WEST THE MODELS HAD DIFFICULTY
RESOLVING THE SPEED AND TRACK OF EX-TYPHOON DUJUAN...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ALASKA FORECAST REGION ON THURSDAY.  ECMWF
HAS BEEN TAKING A PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD TRACK...SO GFS WAS CHOSEN
AS THE MORE LIKELY SOLUTION.  IN THE LONG TERM...MODELS WERE STILL
VARIABLE IN THE EAST ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.  CONSEQUENTLY HPC GUIDANCE WAS CHOSEN AS THE BEST
BLEND OF ALL SOLUTIONS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...THE WEAK SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF KODIAK
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE INSTABILITY TODAY WITH RAIN FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA.  CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
COASTAL AREAS BUT LESS PRECIPITATION ON THE WESTERLY SIDE OF THE
RANGES.  IN SPITE OF THE LACKLUSTER SURFACE LOW THE WIND GRADIENT
THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM IS STILL FAIRLY TIGHT...INDICATING THAT GUSTY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EAST SIDE OF ANCHORAGE.  THE MAJOR
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS THE STRONG LOW MOVING UP FROM THE
GULF ON THURSDAY.  A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AROUND THIS LOW
AND STORMS AND GALES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MARINES.  CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM MEANS THAT A SIMILAR
PRECIPITATION PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER WINDS
INDICATE THAT DOWNSLOPING WILL BE ENHANCED AND THE WESTERN SIDES OF
THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE EVEN LESS PRECIPITATION.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO PROVIDE INSTABILITY
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN
AKPEN.  THIS NORTHERLY FLOW IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY THE JET MENTIONED
EARLIER AND GUSTY WINDS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN
IS FORECAST FOR TODAY. AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CONDITIONS
WILL BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO
INFLUENCE THE REGION.  BY THIS TIME FRAME DUJUAN WILL HAVE MOVED INTO
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...BRINGING STORM FORCE WINDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. THERE IS ALSO GENERAL AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LOW DIGGING FROM
BRISTOL BAY INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA...WHICH MEANS CONTINUED UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 125 132 150 155 165 171 172 180 175 352 413
         STORMS 120 130 170 176 351 411 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEWF SEP 09