Storm Warning 135, NWS Anchorage, AK

603 
FZAK61 PAFC 092258
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-101400-
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 974 MB LOW NEAR 49N 151W WILL MOVE TO 54N 149W THU AFTERNOON 
AT 967 MB. THIS LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN TO 988 MB AS IT MOVES TO 
58N 145W FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-101400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
27 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-101400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 27 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$
S

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 101150
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-110200-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 969 MB LOW NEAR 53N 148W WILL MAINTAIN STRENGTH AND MOVE TO 54N
148W THU AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO 58N 145W AT 994 MB FRI
AFTERNOON. IT WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKEN TO 1001
MB SAT MORNING.
$$

PKZ351-110200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
24 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ352-110200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

962 
FZAK61 PAFC 102259
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-111400-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 970 MB LOW NEAR 55N 148W WILL WEAKEN TO 989 MB AS IT MOVES TO 
58N 145W FRI AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN TO 999 MB AS 
IT DRIFTS TO 60N 147W SAT AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ351-111400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 145W
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING NORTHEAST 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-111400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND EAST OF 145W
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2009

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTERNOON. SEAS 24 FT BECOMING
12 FT AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT TUE SEP 8 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
ALOFT...THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE AKPEN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE AN
ARCTIC UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND BECOME ONE OF THE MAIN FEATURES OF
INTEREST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF AK WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WASHING OUT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THE OLD PARENT LOW IS STATIONARY OVER THE AKPEN...AND WILL EVENTUALLY
BE ABSORBED INTO A DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW LATE WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL FEATURES THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH DETAILS REMAIN CLOUDY WITH REGARDS TO INTENSITY
AND POSITIONING OF INDIVIDUAL SURFACE LOWS. EXPECT THE DIGGING UPPER
LOW TO MOVE INTO THE GULF...DEEPENING THE DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC
SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL
THEN FILL IN THE GULF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT
AREA OF CONCERN PERTAINS TO THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE
DUJUAN AS IT MOVES INTO THE BERING SEA LATE WEEK. MODEL DISAGREEMENT
CONTINUES WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
THE WEAKENING WEATHER FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHWEST TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING...RESULTING IN A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND
COOK INLET REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AMPLE MOISTURE AND
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE DIGGING UPPER LOW WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW AS WELL. BY LATE WEDNESDAY THE
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
REGION. MAIN CONCERNS INCLUDE GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION AS WELL. INLAND
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY...WITH TYPICAL DOWNSLOPED AREAS
EXPERIENCING MINIMAL PRECIPITATION. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE
MOST IMPACT TO THE REGION...WITH KODIAK ISLAND TAKING THE BRUNT FOR
LAND AREAS. STRONG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH CHANNELED AND HIGH
TERRAIN FARTHER INLAND WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

.SOUTHWEST...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS THE
DIGGING UPPER LOW AND VARIOUS WAVES ROTATE AROUND THE AREA. AS THE
LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF SLIPS EASTWARD...BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRYING TREND ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE AKPEN.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING AND
ALEUTIANS AS THE LOW WEAKENS IN THE GULF. EXPECTING THE GRADIENT TO
STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AS THE LARGE NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES
INTO THE GULF. SUBSEQUENTLY...COLD AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. PROGRESSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY...KEEPING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE
AREA. EARLY THURSDAY FOCUS SHIFTS TOWARDS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE DUJUAN. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE AT THIS
POINT...EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER AND STRONG WINDS TO RETURN TO THE
WESTERN BERING BY LATE WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. THERE IS ALSO GENERAL AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LOW DIGGING FROM
BRISTOL BAY INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA...WHICH MEANS CONTINUED UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 150 155 165 170 171 172 176 179 180
         STORM 170
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NRH SEP 09