Storm Warning 110, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 301144
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 30 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-310200-
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 30 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1000 MB LOW 80 NM WEST OF ATTU WILL MOVE TO 150 NM NORTHWEST OF
SAINT PAUL ON EARLY WED MORNING AS 999 MB. A 988 MB LOW 500 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK BY TUE
EVENING.

$$

PKZ150-310200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 30 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-310200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 30 2009

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-310200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 30 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 20 KT. 

$$

PKZ165-310200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 30 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-310200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 30 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-310200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 30 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-310200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 30 2009

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-310200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 30 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-310200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 30 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-310200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 30 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-310200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 30 2009

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-310200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 30 2009

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY/
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A 970 MB LOW MOVING
ONSHORE NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD
OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW STRETCHES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...AND WILL
PUSH ONSHORE THIS EVENING. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA HAS VARIOUS SHORTWAVES AND UPPER
LOWS ROTATING AROUND ITS BASE. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
STRETCHES OVER BRISTOL BAY AND KODIAK ISLAND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE GFS CONTINUES TO INITIALIZE WELL AND IS THE PREFERRED MODEL FOR
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THE NAM WAS ALSO USED AS IT IS BETTER
PORTRAYING THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH POISED
TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE THIS
EVENING...KEEPING WINDS GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA. WARNING LEVEL WINDS
THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY...TURNAGAIN ARM...AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL...WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH TONIGHT. DUE TO
ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION...THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR PORTAGE VALLEY AND
TURNAGAIN ARM EAST OF GIRDWOOD REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE
WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL
ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH PASSAGE. REMNANT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG AROUND
SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH QUIET WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

.SOUTHWEST...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS
THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHWARD. THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AND THE  REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT....AND THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE AKPEN IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHWEST...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH MORE BENIGN ACROSS
SOUTHWEST...WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AKPEN AND SOUTHERN
BRISTOL BAY AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...COLD ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS WINDS
REMAIN BRISK ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOFS WILL ABATE LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BRIEFLY TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
EXPECT AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A LOW
MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA AND A SEPARATE LOW MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF MID WEEK. THE BULK OF THE EFFECTS FROM THESE SYSTEMS
WILL BE FELT ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS AND THE ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING...125 155 181
         HIGH WIND WARNING...101
MARINE...STORM...120 150
         GALE...125 129 130 132 138 140 141 160 165 170 180
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...130 138 140 165 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NRH MAR 09