Gale Warning 261, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 301145
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 30 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-310200-
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 30 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1000 MB LOW NEAR 51N 169E WILL MOVE TO 57N 175W ON EARLY WED
MORNING AS 999 MB.

$$

PKZ411-310200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 30 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-310200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 30 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-310200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 30 2009

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-310200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 30 2009

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 29 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A 970 MB LOW MOVING
ONSHORE NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD
OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW STRETCHES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...AND WILL
PUSH ONSHORE THIS EVENING. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA HAS VARIOUS SHORTWAVES AND UPPER
LOWS ROTATING AROUND ITS BASE. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
STRETCHES OVER BRISTOL BAY AND KODIAK ISLAND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE GFS CONTINUES TO INITIALIZE WELL AND IS THE PREFERRED MODEL FOR
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THE NAM WAS ALSO USED AS IT IS BETTER
PORTRAYING THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH POISED
TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE THIS
EVENING...KEEPING WINDS GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA. WARNING LEVEL WINDS
THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY...TURNAGAIN ARM...AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL...WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH TONIGHT. DUE TO
ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION...THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR PORTAGE VALLEY AND
TURNAGAIN ARM EAST OF GIRDWOOD REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE
WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL
ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH PASSAGE. REMNANT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG AROUND
SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH QUIET WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

.SOUTHWEST...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS
THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHWARD. THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AND THE  REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT....AND THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE AKPEN IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHWEST...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH MORE BENIGN ACROSS
SOUTHWEST...WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AKPEN AND SOUTHERN
BRISTOL BAY AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...COLD ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS WINDS
REMAIN BRISK ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOFS WILL ABATE LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BRIEFLY TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
EXPECT AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A LOW
MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA AND A SEPARATE LOW MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF MID WEEK. THE BULK OF THE EFFECTS FROM THESE SYSTEMS
WILL BE FELT ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS AND THE ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING...125 155 181
         HIGH WIND WARNING...101
MARINE...STORM...120 150
         GALE...125 129 130 132 138 140 141 160 165 170 180
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...130 138 140 165 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NRH MAR 09