Storm Warning 102, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 152321
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-161400-
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 985 MB LOW 180 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA WILL MOVE TO 75 NM SOUTHEAST
OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AND WEAKEN TO 992 MB MON AFTERNOON THEN WILL
DISSIPATE 150 EAST OF KODIAK CITY MON EVENING. A 990 MB LOW
DEVELOPING 200 SOUTHWEST OF SITKA MON AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN TO 995 
MB 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY TUE AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ120-161400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2009

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 35 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-161400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-161400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES IN THE MORNING. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-161400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-161400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-161400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-161400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 6
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-161400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT NE OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-161400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKDT SAT MAR 14 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT NAM APPEARS TO HANDLE WINDS BETTER
OVER CHANNELED AREAS ALONG THE COAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER AIR...THERE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MCKENZIE RIVER DELTA WHICH
IS LINK WITH A WEAKER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THERE IS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND IS SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD. A 300 MB JET EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING
SEA FROM SIBERIA TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THEN TURNS EAST OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON.

AT THE SURFACE...THE WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL
DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER 986 MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN
GULF WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT TONIGHT. A NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL BERING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
UPPER AIR...THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE MCKENZIE DELTA WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN INTERIOR OF ALASKA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WESTERN
GULF MONDAY. DUE TO A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA
THERE WILL VERY LITTLE MOIST OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS AND NO SNOW
IS EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LOW UNTIL IT MOVES OVER THE GULF. THE
UPPER RIDGE WEST OF THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING
AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE 300 MB JET OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN BERING AND ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY WHERE IT WILL REMAIN AS IT
WEAKENS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE JET WILL ENHANCE WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST AND ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
COAST. NORTH TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTH ALASKA ESPECIALLY
THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF MOUNTAIN
RANGES THROUGH MONDAY. AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND MONDAY. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS
DRIER AIR OVER THE INTERIOR MOVE TO THE COAST. A WEATHER FRONT OVER
THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS
SUNDAY THEN WILL DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF MONDAY NIGHT WILL WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT WANDER
AROUND THE GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL SPREAD
MOVE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO KODIAK ISLAND AND EASTERN BRISTOL BAY
TUESDAY BUT WILL DRY OUT AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 150, 155,
         GALE...121,129,130,132,138,160,165,170,172,175,176,180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM MAR 09