Gale Warning 298, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKDT SAT MAR 14 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT NAM APPEARS TO HANDLE WINDS BETTER
OVER CHANNELED AREAS ALONG THE COAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER AIR...THERE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MCKENZIE RIVER DELTA WHICH
IS LINK WITH A WEAKER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THERE IS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND IS SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD. A 300 MB JET EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING
SEA FROM SIBERIA TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THEN TURNS EAST OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON.

AT THE SURFACE...THE WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL
DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER 986 MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN
GULF WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT TONIGHT. A NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL BERING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
UPPER AIR...THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE MCKENZIE DELTA WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN INTERIOR OF ALASKA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WESTERN
GULF MONDAY. DUE TO A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA
THERE WILL VERY LITTLE MOIST OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS AND NO SNOW
IS EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LOW UNTIL IT MOVES OVER THE GULF. THE
UPPER RIDGE WEST OF THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING
AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE 300 MB JET OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN BERING AND ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY WHERE IT WILL REMAIN AS IT
WEAKENS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE JET WILL ENHANCE WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST AND ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
COAST. NORTH TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTH ALASKA ESPECIALLY
THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF MOUNTAIN
RANGES THROUGH MONDAY. AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND MONDAY. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS
DRIER AIR OVER THE INTERIOR MOVE TO THE COAST. A WEATHER FRONT OVER
THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS
SUNDAY THEN WILL DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF MONDAY NIGHT WILL WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT WANDER
AROUND THE GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL SPREAD
MOVE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO KODIAK ISLAND AND EASTERN BRISTOL BAY
TUESDAY BUT WILL DRY OUT AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 150, 155,
         GALE...121,129,130,132,138,160,165,170,172,175,176,180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM MAR 09